arXiv:2512.11526cs.LGcs.AI2025-12

区分异常是短暂噪音还是长期影响,让预测模型更智能。

Contrastive Time Series Forecasting with Anomalies

  • 通过输入与输入输出的增强对比,区分无关异常和相关异常。
  • 在交通、电力及真实现金需求数据上,异常下性能提升12%以上。
  • 适合处理含长期影响异常的工业时序预测任务。

时间序列预测基于历史数据预测未来值。在实际场景中,某些异常事件具有持续影响并应被纳入预测,而另一些仅为短暂噪声,应被忽略。标准预测模型无法做出这种区分,常对噪声过度敏感或遗漏长期变化。本文提出 Co-TSFA(带异常的对比时间序列预测),一种正则化框架,用于学习何时忽略异常、何时响应。Co-TSFA 生成仅输入和输入-输出增强数据,以建模无关与相关异常,并引入潜在输出对齐损失,将表示变化与预测变化关联。这促使对无关扰动保持不变性,同时保留对有意义分布变化的敏感性。在 Traffic 与 Electricity 基准数据集以及一个真实世界现金需求数据集上的实验表明,Co-TSFA 在异常条件下显著提升性能,同时保持正常数据上的准确率。匿名的 GitHub 仓库已提供,将在论文接受后公开。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting predicts future values from past data. In real-world settings, some anomalous events have lasting effects and influence the forecast, while others are short-lived and should be ignored. Standard forecasting models fail to make this distinction, often either overreacting to noise or missing persistent shifts. We propose Co-TSFA (Contrastive Time Series Forecasting with Anomalies), a regularization framework that learns when to ignore anomalies and when to respond. Co-TSFA generates input-only and input-output augmentations to model forecast-irrelevant and forecast-relevant anomalies, and introduces a latent-output alignment loss that ties representation changes to forecast changes. This encourages invariance to irrelevant perturbations while preserving sensitivity to meaningful distributional shifts. Experiments on the Traffic and Electricity benchmarks, as well as on a real-world cash-demand dataset, demonstrate that Co-TSFA improves performance under anomalous conditions while maintaining accuracy on normal data. An anonymized GitHub repository with the implementation of Co-TSFA is provided and will be made public upon acceptance.

时间序列异常检测对比学习

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