arXiv:2512.12211cs.ROcs.AI2025-12AAAI

提出动态评估轨迹预测模型的新方法,更真实反映对自动驾驶决策的帮助。

Measuring What Matters: Scenario-Driven Evaluation for Trajectory Predictors in Autonomous Driving

  • 根据驾驶场景重要性,动态融合准确性和多样性两个维度评分
  • 在真实数据集闭环测试中,新方法与车辆实际表现相关性更强
  • 适合关注自动驾驶安全决策的工程师和研究者

在动态交通环境中,预判周围车辆运动对自动驾驶系统安全至关重要。尽管已有多种轨迹预测方法,现有评估仍依赖误差指标(如ADE、FDE),仅从事后角度衡量精度,忽略预测结果对自动驾驶车辆(SDV)实际决策的影响。高质量预测不仅需高精度,还需覆盖邻近车辆可能的所有运动方向,以支持谨慎决策。为此,本文提出一个综合评估流程,通过准确性和多样性双维度自适应评价预测性能,并根据驾驶场景关键性动态加权,生成最终评分。在真实世界数据集上的闭环基准实验表明,该方法比传统指标更合理地反映预测器评估与自动驾驶车辆表现的相关性,为选择最有助于提升车辆性能的预测器提供了可靠依据。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Being able to anticipate the motion of surrounding agents is essential for the safe operation of autonomous driving systems in dynamic situations. While various methods have been proposed for trajectory prediction, the current evaluation practices still rely on error-based metrics (e.g., ADE, FDE), which reveal the accuracy from a post-hoc view but ignore the actual effect the predictor brings to the self-driving vehicles (SDVs), especially in complex interactive scenarios: a high-quality predictor not only chases accuracy, but should also captures all possible directions a neighbor agent might move, to support the SDVs' cautious decision-making. Given that the existing metrics hardly account for this standard, in our work, we propose a comprehensive pipeline that adaptively evaluates the predictor's performance by two dimensions: accuracy and diversity. Based on the criticality of the driving scenario, these two dimensions are dynamically combined and result in a final score for the predictor's performance. Extensive experiments on a closed-loop benchmark using real-world datasets show that our pipeline yields a more reasonable evaluation than traditional metrics by better reflecting the correlation of the predictors' evaluation with the autonomous vehicles' driving performance. This evaluation pipeline shows a robust way to select a predictor that potentially contributes most to the SDV's driving performance.

自动驾驶轨迹预测评估方法

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