arXiv:2512.12755eess.SYcs.LG2025-12被引 1

用端到端方法让微电网预测更准、运行更省,直接优化决策结果。

An End-to-End Approach for Microgrid Probabilistic Forecasting and Robust Operation via Decision-focused Learning

  • 预测与调度联合优化,通过可导通路反向提升预测精度。
  • 在修改的IEEE 33/69节点系统上,总成本和净成本降低最多18%。
  • 适合关注微电网经济性与鲁棒性的研究人员和工程师。

高比例可再生能源接入使微电网运行面临显著不确定性与间歇性挑战,影响经济性与可靠性。本文提出一种端到端决策导向框架,联合优化微电网的概率预测与鲁棒运行。采用多层编码器-解码器(MED)概率预测模型,与包含直接负荷控制(DLC)的两阶段鲁棒优化(TSRO)模型,通过可微决策路径实现运营结果对预测性能的梯度反馈。相比传统分步流程,该方法通过代理智能预测-再优化(SPO)损失函数直接最小化决策遗憾,使概率预测更契合下游决策目标,从而提升经济效率与鲁棒性。在修改的IEEE 33-bus与69-bus系统上的案例研究显示,所提框架在预测精度与运行性能方面均优于传统组合方法,总成本与净成本最高降低18%。结果验证了该端到端决策导向方法在不确定环境下实现韧性与低成本微电网管理的有效性与可扩展性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) introduces significant uncertainty and intermittency into microgrid operations, posing challenges to economic and reliable scheduling. To address this, this paper proposes an end-to-end decision-focused framework that jointly optimizes probabilistic forecasting and robust operation for microgrids. A multilayer encoder-decoder (MED) probabilistic forecasting model is integrated with a two-stage robust optimization (TSRO) model involving direct load control (DLC) through a differentiable decision pathway, enabling gradient-based feedback from operational outcomes to improve forecasting performance. Unlike conventional sequential approaches, the proposed method aligns forecasting accuracy with operational objectives by directly minimizing decision regret via a surrogate smart predict-then-optimize (SPO) loss function. This integration ensures that probabilistic forecasts are optimized for downstream decisions, enhancing both economic efficiency and robustness. Case studies on modified IEEE 33-bus and 69-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves superior forecasting accuracy and operational performance, reducing total and net operation costs by up to 18% compared with conventional forecasting and optimization combinations. The results verify the effectiveness and scalability of the end-to-end decision-focused approach for resilient and cost-efficient microgrid management under uncertainty.

微电网概率预测决策优化端到端

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