arXiv:2512.12783cs.LGq-fin.ST2025-12

用合成数据证明:行为数据能有效评估无信用记录的穷人。

Credit Risk Estimation with Non-Financial Features: Evidence from a Synthetic Istanbul Dataset

  • 用公开统计和大模型生成10万份伊斯坦布尔居民合成数据。
  • 加入行为特征后,模型准确率提升1.3个百分点,F1值达0.95。
  • 适合做普惠金融、信贷评估和政策制定的研究者参考。

金融排斥限制了创业,加剧收入波动并扩大财富差距。伊斯坦布尔的未被银行覆盖人群常无信用报告,因其收入与支付通过非正式渠道流动。为研究此类借款人如何评估,我们创建了一个包含十万名伊斯坦布尔居民的合成数据集,复现2025年第一季度TÜİK(TURKSTAT)人口普查边缘数据及电信使用模式。通过检索增强生成技术将公开统计数据输入OpenAI o3模型,合成出真实且私密的个人记录。每条记录包含七项社会人口变量和九项替代性属性,涵盖手机配置、网购频率、订阅支出、汽车拥有情况、月租金及信用卡标志。为测试替代数据的影响,对CatBoost、LightGBM、XGBoost分别训练两种版本:仅用社会人口变量的演示模型,以及同时包含社会人口与替代属性的完整模型。在五折分层验证中,加入替代特征使曲线下面积(AUC)提升约1.3个百分点,平衡F1值从约0.84升至0.95,增幅达14%。我们贡献了开放的‘Istanbul 2025 Q1’合成数据集、可完全复现的建模流程,以及实证证据:一组简洁的行为属性可接近官方信用报告的区分能力,同时服务无正式信用记录的群体。这些发现为贷款机构与监管者提供了透明可行的方案,以公平且安全地拓展对弱势群体的信贷覆盖。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial exclusion constrains entrepreneurship, increases income volatility, and widens wealth gaps. Underbanked consumers in Istanbul often have no bureau file because their earnings and payments flow through informal channels. To study how such borrowers can be evaluated we create a synthetic dataset of one hundred thousand Istanbul residents that reproduces first quarter 2025 TÜİK (TURKSTAT) census marginals and telecom usage patterns. Retrieval augmented generation feeds these public statistics into the OpenAI o3 model, which synthesises realistic yet private records. Each profile contains seven socio demographic variables and nine alternative attributes that describe phone specifications, online shopping rhythm, subscription spend, car ownership, monthly rent, and a credit card flag. To test the impact of the alternative financial data CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost are each trained in two versions. Demo models use only the socio demographic variables; Full models include both socio demographic and alternative attributes. Across five fold stratified validation the alternative block raises area under the curve by about one point three percentage and lifts balanced F 1 from roughly 0.84 to 0.95, a fourteen percent gain. We contribute an open Istanbul 2025 Q1 synthetic dataset, a fully reproducible modeling pipeline, and empirical evidence that a concise set of behavioural attributes can approach bureau level discrimination power while serving borrowers who lack formal credit records. These findings give lenders and regulators a transparent blueprint for extending fair and safe credit access to the underbanked.

信贷风险合成数据普惠金融行为分析

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