arXiv:2512.12869cs.CEcs.CL2025-12

用专利续期数据训练大模型,实现实时可解释的专利估值。

ERA-IT: Aligning Semantic Models with Revealed Economic Preference for Real-Time and Explainable Patent Valuation

  • 将专利续期视为市场偏好信号,指导大模型生成经济逻辑推理。
  • 在1万件欧洲专利上验证,预测准确率显著优于传统模型和零样本大模型。
  • 输出带逻辑链的解释性结论,适合需要透明决策的知识产权管理者。

在技术革新战略管理中,由于高维技术规格固有的信息不对称,对无形资产的估值仍面临严峻挑战。传统引文指标因数据积累存在系统性延迟,难以及时应对这一问题。为此,本文提出经济推理对齐指令微调(ERA-IT)框架,将专利续期历史理论化为显性经济偏好,并以此作为目标监督信号,使大语言模型(LLMs)的生成推理与市场现实对齐,这一过程称为生态-语义对齐。基于随机抽取的10,000件欧洲专利局专利数据集(涵盖多元技术领域),我们训练模型不仅预测价值等级,还从非结构化文本中逆向推导经济思维链。实证结果表明,ERA-IT在预测准确性上显著优于传统计量模型及零样本大模型。更重要的是,通过生成明确、逻辑自洽的估值理由,该框架为决策者提供了透明的认知支架,降低了高风险知识产权管理中黑箱AI的不透明性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Valuing intangible assets under uncertainty remains a critical challenge in the strategic management of technological innovation due to the information asymmetry inherent in high-dimensional technical specifications. Traditional bibliometric indicators, such as citation counts, fail to address this friction in a timely manner due to the systemic latency inherent in data accumulation. To bridge this gap, this study proposes the Economic Reasoning Alignment via Instruction Tuning (ERA-IT) framework. We theoretically conceptualize patent renewal history as a revealed economic preference and leverage it as an objective supervisory signal to align the generative reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs) with market realities, a process we term Eco-Semantic Alignment. Using a randomly sampled dataset of 10,000 European Patent Office patents across diverse technological domains, we trained the model not only to predict value tiers but also to reverse-engineer the Economic Chain-of-Thought from unstructured text. Empirical results demonstrate that ERA-IT significantly outperforms both conventional econometric models and zero-shot LLMs in predictive accuracy. More importantly, by generating explicit, logically grounded rationales for valuation, the framework serves as a transparent cognitive scaffold for decision-makers, reducing the opacity of black-box AI in high-stakes intellectual property management.

专利估值大模型可解释性

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