arXiv:2512.12896cs.LG2025-12被引 10

用机器学习快速生成交通不确定性预测图,提升自动驾驶安全系统响应能力。

Probability Estimation for Predicted-Occupancy Grids in Vehicle Safety Applications Based on Machine Learning

  • 用增强栅格表示交通状态,通过随机森林模型映射为概率占用网格
  • 仿真显示机器学习法计算速度显著快于传统建模方法,可实现实时处理
  • 适合需要高精度行为预测的自动驾驶安全系统研发人员使用

本文提出一种基于机器学习的方法,用于预测多对象复杂交通场景的演化。假设当前场景状态由传感器获取,预测过程考虑了交通参与者行为的各种假设,从而细致建模其行为不确定性。首先介绍基于模型的预测占用网格(POG)计算方法,但该方法因每个交通参与者可能轨迹数量庞大而计算开销极高。为此,本文采用机器学习方法,使用新型栅格化当前场景表示,通过随机森林算法实现到POG的映射。通过交通场景仿真对比了机器学习与模型方法的性能,结果表明该方法具备良好前景,可实现POG的实时计算,为车辆安全系统中的关键性评估和轨迹规划等核心模块提供更精确的不确定性建模支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper presents a method to predict the evolution of a complex traffic scenario with multiple objects. The current state of the scenario is assumed to be known from sensors and the prediction is taking into account various hypotheses about the behavior of traffic participants. This way, the uncertainties regarding the behavior of traffic participants can be modelled in detail. In the first part of this paper a model-based approach is presented to compute Predicted-Occupancy Grids (POG), which are introduced as a grid-based probabilistic representation of the future scenario hypotheses. However, due to the large number of possible trajectories for each traffic participant, the model-based approach comes with a very high computational load. Thus, a machine-learning approach is adopted for the computation of POGs. This work uses a novel grid-based representation of the current state of the traffic scenario and performs the mapping to POGs. This representation consists of augmented cells in an occupancy grid. The adopted machine-learning approach is based on the Random Forest algorithm. Simulations of traffic scenarios are performed to compare the machine-learning with the model-based approach. The results are promising and could enable the real-time computation of POGs for vehicle safety applications. With this detailed modelling of uncertainties, crucial components in vehicle safety systems like criticality estimation and trajectory planning can be improved.

交通预测概率建模自动驾驶

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