arXiv:2512.13174econ.GNcs.AI2025-12

用价格激励推动低碳饮食,组合方案效果最好且不伤销量。

Carrot, stick, or both? Price incentives for sustainable food choice in competitive environments

  • 设计三种价格策略:素食减价、肉品加价、两者结合。
  • 加价和组合策略使素餐选择率提升26.4%和16.6%,碳排放下降7.4%和11.3%。
  • 组合方案减排明显且不影响总销量,适合大规模推广。

肉类消费是全球温室气体排放的主要驱动因素。尽管价格干预有望减少肉类摄入,但以往研究多局限于选择受限的封闭环境。本文首次在真实世界、竞争性环境中开展大规模实地实验,通过瑞士大学校园四家食堂的顺序交叉设计,系统比较了素食餐降价(-2.5瑞士法郎)、肉品加价(+2.5瑞士法郎)及组合方案(-1.2瑞士法郎=+1.2瑞士法郎)的效果。仅加价与组合干预显著提升素食餐选择率——分别达26.4%和16.6%,每餐碳排放降低7.4%和11.3%。加价策略虽有效,却导致干预点销量下降12.3%,非处理点销量上升14.9%,造成溢出效应,完全抵消环境收益。相比之下,组合方案实现显著减排,且对总体销量与收入无显著影响,兼具有效性与经济可行性。值得注意的是,价格干预对素食倾向者与习惯性肉食者均同样有效,能改变固有饮食习惯。结果表明,平衡的价格策略可降低现实食品环境的碳足迹,但需协同实施以最大化气候效益并避免意外溢出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Meat consumption is a major driver of global greenhouse gas emissions. While pricing interventions have shown potential to reduce meat intake, previous studies have focused on highly constrained environments with limited consumer choice. Here, we present the first large-scale field experiment to evaluate multiple pricing interventions in a real-world, competitive setting. Using a sequential crossover design with matched menus in a Swiss university campus, we systematically compared vegetarian-meal discounts (-2.5 CHF), meat surcharges (+2.5 CHF), and a combined scheme (-1.2 CHF=+1.2 CHF) across four campus cafeterias. Only the surcharge and combined interventions led to significant increases in vegetarian meal uptake--by 26.4% and 16.6%, respectively--and reduced CO2 emissions per meal by 7.4% and 11.3%, respectively. The surcharge, while effective, triggered a 12.3% drop in sales at intervention sites and a corresponding 14.9% increase in non-treated locations, hence causing a spillover effect that completely offset environmental gains. In contrast, the combined approach achieved meaningful emission reductions without significant effects on overall sales or revenue, making it both effective and economically viable. Notably, pricing interventions were equally effective for both vegetarian-leaning customers and habitual meat-eaters, stimulating change even within entrenched dietary habits. Our results show that balanced pricing strategies can reduce the carbon footprint of realistic food environments, but require coordinated implementation to maximize climate benefits and avoid unintended spillover effects.

碳减排饮食行为价格激励可持续

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