用深度学习预测船舶全球航行目的地,提前数天至数周
WAY: Estimation of Vessel Destination in Worldwide AIS Trajectory
- 将航迹重构为嵌套序列结构,结合空间网格缓解时空偏差
- 提出WAY模型,实现长达数周的目的地预测,准确率显著提升
- 创新梯度丢弃策略支持多对一训练,适合实际航运场景
自动识别系统(AIS)为数据驱动的海上监控提供支持,但存在可靠性问题和采样间隔不规律。本文基于五年全球AIS数据,提出一种新型方法,将长距离港口间航迹重构为嵌套序列结构,利用空间网格缓解时空偏差同时保持高分辨率。设计了名为WAY的深度学习架构,包含轨迹表示层与通道聚合序列处理(CASP)模块:表示层从运动与非运动特征生成多通道向量序列;CASP块采用多头通道与自注意力机制实现信息聚合与序列传递。此外,提出任务专用梯度丢弃(GD)技术,通过按样本长度随机阻断梯度流,实现单标签下的多对多训练,防止反馈偏差。实验表明,WAY在任意航程阶段均优于传统空间网格方法,且使用GD可进一步提升性能。最后,通过多任务学习探索其在到港时间(ETA)估计中的应用潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) enables data-driven maritime surveillance but suffers from reliability issues and irregular intervals. We address vessel destination estimation using global-scope AIS data by proposing a differentiated approach that recasts long port-to-port trajectories as a nested sequence structure. Using spatial grids, this method mitigates spatio-temporal bias while preserving detailed resolution. We introduce a novel deep learning architecture, WAY, designed to process these reformulated trajectories for long-term destination estimation days to weeks in advance. WAY comprises a trajectory representation layer and Channel-Aggregative Sequential Processing (CASP) blocks. The representation layer generates multi-channel vector sequences from kinematic and non-kinematic features. CASP blocks utilize multi-headed channel- and self-attention for aggregation and sequential information delivery. Additionally, we propose a task-specialized Gradient Dropout (GD) technique to enable many-to-many training on single labels, preventing biased feedback surges by stochastically blocking gradient flow based on sample length. Experiments on 5-year AIS data demonstrate WAY's superiority over conventional spatial grid-based approaches regardless of trajectory progression. Results further confirm that adopting GD leads to performance gains. Finally, we explore WAY's potential for real-world application through multitask learning for ETA estimation.
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