arXiv:2512.13910cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 1

用深度学习预测南美降水,LSTM表现最佳,适合高精度需求场景。

Exploring Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Explainable AI Methods for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction in South America

  • 对比多种机器学习与深度学习模型,聚焦南美全年降水预测。
  • LSTM在重降水预测上最准确,但延迟较高;XGBoost延迟低且精度略降。
  • 引入可解释AI分析模型行为,验证深度学习在气候预报中的可行性。

由于气象过程复杂,精准预测仍具挑战性。本研究系统评估了经典机器学习(随机森林、XGBoost)与深度学习模型(1D-CNN、LSTM、GRU)在南美全年2019个季节的降水预测能力,并以巴西全球大气模型(BAM)作为传统动态建模代表进行对比。结果表明,LSTM在重降水预测中表现最优,尽管延迟较高;而XGBoost在计算成本敏感场景下提供更优性价比。通过可解释人工智能(XAI)技术,进一步揭示了模型决策机制。研究证实深度学习模型在气候预测中的有效性,支持其在全球气象中心的应用趋势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecasting meteorological variables is challenging due to the complexity of their processes, requiring advanced models for accuracy. Accurate precipitation forecasts are vital for society. Reliable predictions help communities mitigate climatic impacts. Based on the current relevance of artificial intelligence (AI), classical machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been used as an alternative or complement to dynamic modeling. However, there is still a lack of broad investigations into the feasibility of purely data-driven approaches for precipitation forecasting. This study aims at addressing this issue where different classical ML and DL approaches for forecasting precipitation in South America, taking into account all 2019 seasons, are considered in a detailed investigation. The selected classical ML techniques were Random Forests and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), while the DL counterparts were a 1D convolutional neural network (CNN 1D), a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and a gated recurrent unit (GRU) model. Additionally, the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM) was used as a representative of the traditional dynamic modeling approach. We also relied on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to provide some explanations for the models behaviors. LSTM showed strong predictive performance while BAM, the traditional dynamic model representative, had the worst results. Despite presented the higher latency, LSTM was most accurate for heavy precipitation. If cost is a concern, XGBoost offers lower latency with slightly accuracy loss. The results of this research confirm the viability of DL models for climate forecasting, solidifying a global trend in major meteorological and climate forecasting centers.

降水预测深度学习可解释AI南美

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