arXiv:2512.14361cs.LGcs.AI2025-12AAAI

提出新方法学习连续时间动态系统的因果结构,更准更鲁棒。

Causal Structure Learning for Dynamical Systems with Theoretical Score Analysis

  • 基于差分因果模型,避免离散化时间假设
  • 用高斯过程建模连续动态,提升对不规则采样数据的适应性
  • 结合算法马尔可夫条件与最小描述长度,高效搜索真实因果结构

现实世界系统以连续时间演化,依赖其潜在因果关系,但动态规律常未知。现有方法或离散化时间导致不规则采样数据表现差,或忽略底层因果性。本文提出CaDyT,一种针对动态系统的新型因果发现方法,克服上述挑战。不同于基于离散时间动态贝叶斯网络的主流方法,本方法基于差分因果模型,对连续系统假设更宽松。CaDyT利用精确高斯过程推断建模连续时间动态,更贴合实际动力学过程。我们提出一种实用实现,通过受算法马尔可夫条件和最小描述长度原则引导的贪心搜索识别因果结构。实验表明,无论在规则或不规则采样数据上,CaDyT均优于现有先进方法,能更准确发现接近真实动态的因果网络。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real world systems evolve in continuous-time according to their underlying causal relationships, yet their dynamics are often unknown. Existing approaches to learning such dynamics typically either discretize time -- leading to poor performance on irregularly sampled data -- or ignore the underlying causality. We propose CaDyT, a novel method for causal discovery on dynamical systems addressing both these challenges. In contrast to state-of-the-art causal discovery methods that model the problem using discrete-time Dynamic Bayesian networks, our formulation is grounded in Difference-based causal models, which allow milder assumptions for modeling the continuous nature of the system. CaDyT leverages exact Gaussian Process inference for modeling the continuous-time dynamics which is more aligned with the underlying dynamical process. We propose a practical instantiation that identifies the causal structure via a greedy search guided by the Algorithmic Markov Condition and Minimum Description Length principle. Our experiments show that CaDyT outperforms state-of-the-art methods on both regularly and irregularly-sampled data, discovering causal networks closer to the true underlying dynamics.

因果发现动态系统高斯过程

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