arXiv:2512.14400cs.LG2025-12

用多源文本精准对齐负荷数据,提升电网预测精度与可解释性。

GRAFT: Grid-Aware Load Forecasting with Multi-Source Textual Alignment and Fusion

  • 通过交叉注意力将新闻、社交媒体等文本对齐到半小时负荷数据
  • 在多个地区和时间尺度上超越现有模型,事件驱动下仍保持稳定
  • 支持实时接入外部信息,且能定位文本影响时间点和来源

电力负荷受天气、日历节奏、突发事件和政策等多时间尺度外生因素共同影响。本文提出 GRAFT(Grid-Aware Forecasting with Text),改进 STanHOP 模型以支持电网感知的多源文本干预。GRAFT 严格将每日聚合的新闻、社交媒体及政策文本对齐至半小时级负荷数据,并在训练与滚动预测中通过交叉注意力实现文本引导的时序融合。此外,模型提供即插即用的外部记忆接口,便于真实场景中接入不同信息源。研究构建并发布一个统一对齐基准,涵盖2019–2021年澳大利亚五个州的数据(半小时负荷、日对齐的气象/日历变量,以及三类外部文本)。在小时、日、月三个尺度上,基于统一协议进行系统化、可复现评估。实验表明,GRAFT 显著优于强基线,跨区域和预测时长达到或超过当前最优水平。模型在事件驱动场景中表现稳健,可通过注意力读出实现文本影响的时间定位与来源解析。相关基准、预处理脚本与预测结果已公开,以促进标准化评估与可复现研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Electric load is simultaneously affected across multiple time scales by exogenous factors such as weather and calendar rhythms, sudden events, and policies. Therefore, this paper proposes GRAFT (GRid-Aware Forecasting with Text), which modifies and improves STanHOP to better support grid-aware forecasting and multi-source textual interventions. Specifically, GRAFT strictly aligns daily-aggregated news, social media, and policy texts with half-hour load, and realizes text-guided fusion to specific time positions via cross-attention during both training and rolling forecasting. In addition, GRAFT provides a plug-and-play external-memory interface to accommodate different information sources in real-world deployment. We construct and release a unified aligned benchmark covering 2019--2021 for five Australian states (half-hour load, daily-aligned weather/calendar variables, and three categories of external texts), and conduct systematic, reproducible evaluations at three scales -- hourly, daily, and monthly -- under a unified protocol for comparison across regions, external sources, and time scales. Experimental results show that GRAFT significantly outperforms strong baselines and reaches or surpasses the state of the art across multiple regions and forecasting horizons. Moreover, the model is robust in event-driven scenarios and enables temporal localization and source-level interpretation of text-to-load effects through attention read-out. We release the benchmark, preprocessing scripts, and forecasting results to facilitate standardized empirical evaluation and reproducibility in power grid load forecasting.

负荷预测多源文本电网智能可解释性

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