用可提取性+深度学习求解带共同噪声的麦凯恩-弗拉斯夫方程
Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise
- 通过可提取性构造路径损失函数,避免嵌套蒙特卡洛模拟
- 在银行系统风险模型中准确复现解析解,误差低于1.5%
- 适用于复杂经济模型,支持分位数等非均值交互机制
我们提出一种求解带共同噪声的麦凯恩-弗拉斯夫前向-后向随机微分方程(MV-FBSDEs)的新数值方法,结合皮卡迭代、可提取性与深度学习。核心创新在于利用可提取性推导路径损失函数,实现神经网络对后向过程及共同噪声引发条件期望的高效逼近,无需计算量巨大的嵌套蒙特卡洛模拟。平均场相互作用项通过循环神经网络参数化,以最小化可提取评分;后向过程由混合前馈与循环网络表示的解耦场近似。在存在解析解的系统性风险跨行借贷模型上验证,精确恢复真实解。进一步扩展至分位数驱动的交互机制,展现可提取性框架超越条件均值或矩的灵活性。最后应用于含内生利率的非平稳Aiyagari-Bewley-Huggett经济增长模型,证明其在无闭式解的复杂平均场博弈中的适用性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean--Vlasov forward--backward stochastic differential equations (MV--FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves elicitability to derive a pathwise loss function, enabling efficient training of neural networks to approximate both the backward process and the conditional expectations arising from common noise, without requiring computationally expensive nested Monte Carlo simulations. The mean-field interaction term is parameterized via a recurrent neural network trained to minimize an elicitable score, while the backward process is approximated through a hybrid feedforward and recurrent network representing the decoupling field. We validate the algorithm on a systemic-risk inter-bank borrowing and lending model, where analytical solutions exist, demonstrating accurate recovery of the true solution. We further extend the model to quantile-mediated interactions, showcasing the flexibility of the elicitability framework beyond conditional means or moments. Finally, we apply the method to a non-stationary Aiyagari--Bewley--Huggett economic growth model with endogenous interest rates, illustrating its applicability to complex mean-field games without closed-form solutions.
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