arXiv:2512.15008cs.LG2025-12被引 2

用确定性方法提取股价结构性走势并关联真实事件,实现可审计的市场行为解析。

Stock Pattern Assistant (SPA): A Deterministic and Explainable Framework for Structural Price Run Extraction and Event Correlation in Equity Markets

  • 基于每日价格数据与事件流,通过确定性规则识别单调价格走势。
  • 在四只股票上验证,稳定分解出历史价格结构并生成上下文解释。
  • 适合需要透明、可复现分析的分析师和风控场景,非预测工具。

理解价格演变常需剥离市场噪声以识别清晰的结构性行为。当前常用的技术指标、图表经验法则或复杂预测模型难以提供透明解释,且依赖平台规则,缺乏可审计性。我们提出股票模式助手(SPA),一种确定性框架,用于提取单调价格走势,通过对称相关窗口关联公开事件,并生成基于事实、历史且受控的解释。SPA仅使用每日OHLCV数据和标准化事件流,流程简单可审计、易复现。我们选取四只股票——AAPL、NVDA、SCHW 和 PGR——覆盖不同波动率与行业特征进行评估。尽管评估周期有限,结果表明SPA能持续产出稳定的结构分解与情境化叙事。消融实验进一步验证了确定性分段、事件对齐与约束性解释对可解释性的贡献。SPA并非预测系统,也不生成交易信号,其价值在于为历史价格结构提供透明、可复现的视图,可补充分析师工作流、风险审查及可解释人工智能体系。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding how prices evolve over time often requires peeling back the layers of market noise to identify clear, structural behavior. Many of the tools commonly used for this purpose technical indicators, chart heuristics, or even sophisticated predictive models leave important questions unanswered. Technical indicators depend on platform-specific rules, and predictive systems typically offer little in terms of explanation. In settings that demand transparency or auditability, this poses a significant challenge. We introduce the Stock Pattern Assistant (SPA), a deterministic framework designed to extract monotonic price runs, attach relevant public events through a symmetric correlation window, and generate explanations that are factual, historical, and guardrailed. SPA relies only on daily OHLCV data and a normalized event stream, making the pipeline straight-forward to audit and easy to reproduce. To illustrate SPA's behavior in practice, we evaluate it across four equities-AAPL, NVDA, SCHW, and PGR-chosen to span a range of volatility regimes and sector characteristics. Although the evaluation period is modest, the results demonstrate how SPA consistently produces stable structural decompositions and contextual narratives. Ablation experiments further show how deterministic segmentation, event alignment, and constrained explanation each contribute to interpretability. SPA is not a forecasting system, nor is it intended to produce trading signals. Its value lies in offering a transparent, reproducible view of historical price structure that can complement analyst workflows, risk reviews, and broader explainable-AI pipelines.

股价分析可解释性事件关联确定性框架

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