用扩散模型预测电磁场,还能给出不确定性范围。
EMFusion: Uncertainty-Aware Conditional Diffusion Model for Multivariate Narrow-band Exposure Forecasting
- 基于条件扩散模型,融合时间、季节等上下文信息
- 在真实数据上比基线模型误差低13.93%以上
- 适合需要可靠预测的无线网络规划与健康评估
无线基础设施快速发展,亟需精准估算和预测电磁场(EMF)水平以确保合规性、评估潜在健康影响并支持高效网络规划。现有研究多依赖宽频带总辐射的单变量预测,而多运营商、多频段的窄带预测对主动网络规划至关重要。本文提出EMFusion,一种基于条件扩散的多变量窄带EMF预测框架,可整合时间、季节、节假日等多元上下文信息,并提供不确定性感知的概率预测。其架构采用残差U-Net主干结合交叉注意力机制,动态融合外部条件引导生成过程。此外,通过基于插补的采样策略,将预测视为结构化补全任务,即使在测量不规则的情况下也能保证时间一致性。与传统点预测不同,EMFusion从学习到的条件分布中生成经验概率预测区间,实现不确定性感知的概率预测。在多变量窄带EMF数据集上的实验表明,引入工作时段信息的EMFusion优于各类基线模型,连续排名概率得分(CRPS)提升23.85%,归一化均方根误差降低13.93%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rapid growth in wireless infrastructure has increased the need to accurately estimate and forecast electromagnetic field (EMF) levels to ensure ongoing compliance, assess potential health impacts, and support efficient network planning. While existing studies rely on univariate forecasting of wideband aggregate EMF data, multivariate narrow-band EMF forecasting is needed to capture the inter-operator and inter-frequency variations essential for proactive network planning. To this end, this paper introduces EMFusion, a conditional diffusion-based EMF forecasting framework that integrates diverse contextual factors, such as time of day, season, and holidays, while providing uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasts. The proposed architecture features a residual U-Net backbone enhanced by a cross-attention mechanism that dynamically integrates external conditions to guide the generation process. Furthermore, EMFusion integrates an imputation-based sampling strategy that treats forecasting as a structural inpainting task, ensuring temporal coherence even with irregular measurements. Unlike standard point forecasters, EMFusion generates empirical probabilistic prediction intervals from the learned conditional distribution, providing uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasting rather than simple point estimation. Numerical experiments conducted on the multivariate narrow-band EMF datasets demonstrate that EMFusion with the contextual information of working hours outperforms the baseline models with or without conditions. The proposed EMFusion outperforms the best baseline by 23.85% in continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and 13.93% in normalized root mean square error.
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