通过动态学习水文因果图,提升洪水预报的准确性与可解释性。
CauSTream: Causal Spatio-Temporal Representation Learning for Streamflow Forecasting
- 联合学习气象驱动与站点间的因果关系图,自适应捕捉水文动态。
- 在三大美国流域测试中,长时程预测性能显著优于现有方法。
- 结果符合水文常识,适合需可解释性的水资源管理场景。
流量预报对水资源管理和风险防控至关重要。尽管深度学习模型具备强大预测能力,但常忽视底层物理过程,导致可解释性差和泛化能力弱。近期因果学习方法结合领域知识,但多依赖固定因果图,难以随数据变化调整。本文提出CauSTream,一种统一的因果时空流量预报框架,联合学习(i)气象强迫间的产流因果图,以及(ii)站点间动态依赖的输水图。进一步在非参数设定下建立了这些因果结构的可识别性条件。在三个主要美国流域、三种预报时长上评估,该模型持续超越现有最先进方法,且长时预报差距扩大,表明更强的未知条件泛化能力。除预报外,CauSTream还学习出与水文知识高度一致的因果结构,揭示流域动态机制。该方法为因果时空建模提供理论基础,有望推广至更多科学与环境应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and generalization. Recent causal learning approaches address these issues by integrating domain knowledge, yet they typically rely on fixed causal graphs that fail to adapt to data. We propose CauStream, a unified framework for causal spatiotemporal streamflow forecasting. CauSTream jointly learns (i) a runoff causal graph among meteorological forcings and (ii) a routing graph capturing dynamic dependencies across stations. We further establish identifiability conditions for these causal structures under a nonparametric setting. We evaluate CauSTream on three major U.S. river basins across three forecasting horizons. The model consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, with performance gaps widening at longer forecast windows, indicating stronger generalization to unseen conditions. Beyond forecasting, CauSTream also learns causal graphs that capture relationships among hydrological factors and stations. The inferred structures align closely with established domain knowledge, offering interpretable insights into watershed dynamics. CauSTream offers a principled foundation for causal spatiotemporal modeling, with the potential to extend to a wide range of scientific and environmental applications.
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