arXiv:2512.16221cs.LGcs.AI2025-12

用神经网络模拟滑坡扩散,速度比传统方法快上千倍。

Neural emulation of gravity-driven geohazard runout

  • 用百万级仿真训练神经网络预测滑坡范围与堆积厚度。
  • 在真实地形上预测精度高,计算速度提升100至10000倍。
  • 适合用于大范围灾害预警系统,支持实时决策。

预测地质灾害的运动范围对保护生命、基础设施和生态系统至关重要。快速大规模流动(如滑坡和雪崩)在全球范围内造成数千人死亡,常从源头出发行进数十公里。由于源区条件和物质特性差异大,其运动范围难以预判,尤其对下游突然暴露于强冲击的社区构成威胁。准确的大规模预测需要兼具物理真实性与计算效率的模型,但现有方法存在速度与真实性的根本权衡。本文训练了一个机器学习模型,可在典型真实地形上预测地质灾害的运动范围。该模型能高精度预测流体范围与沉积厚度,计算速度比数值求解器快100至10,000倍。模型基于超过10万次数值模拟,在超过1万片真实数字高程模型(DEM)切片上训练,重现了分流、沉积等关键物理行为,并可泛化至不同类型的流动、规模和地貌。结果表明,神经模拟实现了多样真实地形下的快速、空间解析的灾害运动预测,为减灾与影响预报开辟新路径。这一方法展示了将物理真实模型扩展至大尺度早期预警系统所需时空范围的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting geohazard runout is critical for protecting lives, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rapid mass flows, including landslides and avalanches, cause several thousand deaths across a wide range of environments, often travelling many kilometres from their source. The wide range of source conditions and material properties governing these flows makes their runout difficult to anticipate, particularly for downstream communities that may be suddenly exposed to severe impacts. Accurately predicting runout at scale requires models that are both physically realistic and computationally efficient, yet existing approaches face a fundamental speed-realism trade-off. Here we train a machine learning model to predict geohazard runout across representative real world terrains. The model predicts both flow extent and deposit thickness with high accuracy and 100 to 10,000 times faster computation than numerical solvers. It is trained on over 100,000 numerical simulations across over 10,000 real world digital elevation model chips and reproduces key physical behaviours, including avulsion and deposition patterns, while generalizing across different flow types, sizes and landscapes. Our results demonstrate that neural emulation enables rapid, spatially resolved runout prediction across diverse real world terrains, opening new opportunities for disaster risk reduction and impact-based forecasting. These results highlight neural emulation as a promising pathway for extending physically realistic geohazard modelling to spatial and temporal scales relevant for large scale early warning systems.

灾害模拟神经网络滑坡预测快速建模

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