用迁移学习提升小样本下个体治疗效应的估计精度

Generalizing causal knowledge across diverse environments is challenging, especially when estimates from large-scale datasets must be applied to smaller or systematically different contexts, where external validity is critical. Model-based estimators of individual treatment effects (ITE) from machine learning require large sample sizes, limiting their applicability in domains such as behavioral sciences with smaller datasets. We demonstrate how estimation of ITEs with Treatment Agnostic Representation Networks (TARNet; Shalit et al., 2017) can be improved by leveraging knowledge from source datasets and adapting it to new settings via transfer learning (TL-TARNet; Aloui et al., 2023). In simulations that vary source and sample sizes and consider both randomized and non-randomized intervention target settings, the transfer-learning extension TL-TARNet improves upon standard TARNet, reducing ITE error and attenuating bias when a large unbiased source is available and target samples are small. In an empirical application using the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II), we estimate the effect of mothers' firewood collection time on children's weekly study time; transfer learning pulls the target mean ITEs toward the source ITE estimate, reducing bias in the estimates obtained without transfer. These results suggest that transfer learning for causal models can improve the estimation of ITE in small samples.