对比五种方法在不同时间尺度和城市场景下预测电动车充电负荷的准确性。
Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting: An Experimental Comparison of Machine Learning Methods
- 比较传统统计、机器学习与深度学习模型在充电负荷预测中的表现。
- 在分钟到天级时间尺度上评估,不同空间聚合层级效果差异显著。
- 基于四个真实数据集,为电网管理提供可参考的预测方案选择。
随着电动汽车作为应对气候变化的重要手段日益普及,其对电网管理的影响引发关注。因此,预测电动车充电需求成为一项紧迫且重要的研究课题。尽管已有大量关于交通领域能源负荷预测的研究,但针对多种预测方法在不同时间尺度和空间聚合水平下的系统性比较仍较为缺乏。本文研究了五种时间序列预测模型的有效性,涵盖从传统统计方法到机器学习与深度学习方法。评估范围包括分钟级、小时级和天级等短、中、长期预测,以及从单个充电站到区域及城市层面的空间聚合级别。分析基于四个公开的真实世界数据集,结果按数据集独立报告。据我们所知,这是首个在如此广泛的时间尺度和空间聚合水平上,利用多个真实数据集系统评估电动车充电负荷预测的研究所。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With the growing popularity of electric vehicles as a means of addressing climate change, concerns have emerged regarding their impact on electric grid management. As a result, predicting EV charging demand has become a timely and important research problem. While substantial research has addressed energy load forecasting in transportation, relatively few studies systematically compare multiple forecasting methods across different temporal horizons and spatial aggregation levels in diverse urban settings. This work investigates the effectiveness of five time series forecasting models, ranging from traditional statistical approaches to machine learning and deep learning methods. Forecasting performance is evaluated for short-, mid-, and long-term horizons (on the order of minutes, hours, and days, respectively), and across spatial scales ranging from individual charging stations to regional and city-level aggregations. The analysis is conducted on four publicly available real-world datasets, with results reported independently for each dataset. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to systematically evaluate EV charging demand forecasting across such a wide range of temporal horizons and spatial aggregation levels using multiple real-world datasets.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。