用强化学习模拟电力市场，评估碳中和目标下的长期机制设计。
Assessing Long-Term Electricity Market Design for Ambitious Decarbonization Targets using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
- 采用多智能体强化学习建模发电企业投资决策，响应政策与竞争。
- 不同市场设计下，碳中和路径可避免电价剧烈波动，关键取决于机制设计。
- 适合能源政策制定者、电网规划者，用于测试复杂政策组合效果。
电力系统是实现碳中和经济的关键。长期电力市场机制（如拍卖、补贴等）对发电结构塑造至关重要。为支持政策制定者评估长期市场设计，本文提出一种基于独立近端策略优化（IPPO）的多智能体强化学习模型，模拟利润最大化发电企业的投资行为，响应系统需求、竞争动态与政策信号。通过大量超参数搜索，确保去中心化训练能产生符合竞争行为的市场结果。模型应用于意大利电力系统的简化版本，测试了不同竞争程度、市场设计及政策情景下的表现。结果表明，市场设计在推动脱碳和避免电价波动方面起决定性作用。该框架可同时评估多种政策与市场机制的交互影响，使市场主体能适应不同的脱碳路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Electricity systems are key to transforming today's society into a carbon-free economy. Long-term electricity market mechanisms, including auctions, support schemes, and other policy instruments, are critical in shaping the electricity generation mix. In light of the need for more advanced tools to support policymakers and other stakeholders in designing, testing, and evaluating long-term markets, this work presents a multi-agent reinforcement learning model capable of capturing the key features of decarbonizing energy systems. Profit-maximizing generation companies make investment decisions in the wholesale electricity market, responding to system needs, competitive dynamics, and policy signals. The model employs independent proximal policy optimization, which was selected for suitability to the decentralized and competitive environment. Nevertheless, given the inherent challenges of independent learning in multi-agent settings, an extensive hyperparameter search ensures that decentralized training yields market outcomes consistent with competitive behavior. The model is applied to a stylized version of the Italian electricity system and tested under varying levels of competition, market designs, and policy scenarios. Results highlight the critical role of market design for decarbonizing the electricity sector and avoiding price volatility. The proposed framework allows assessing long-term electricity markets in which multiple policy and market mechanisms interact simultaneously, with market participants responding and adapting to decarbonization pathways.
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