提出可序列化优化干预的因果方法,提升流程决策效果。
SCOPE: Sequential Causal Optimization of Process Interventions
- 用反向归纳法逐步评估干预影响,考虑时间依赖性
- 在真实事件日志基础上构建新基准,性能超越现有方法
- 直接使用观察数据,避免仿真偏差,适合流程管理场景
预测性流程监控(PresPM)旨在运行中推荐干预以优化关键绩效指标(KPI)。现实中干预常需序列协同,但现有方法多仅关注单次决策或独立处理多次干预,忽略其动态交互。部分方法依赖模拟或数据增强训练强化学习代理,可能引入现实差距与偏差。本文提出SCOPE(序列因果干预优化),通过反向归纳法从最终决策点回溯评估每个干预的因果效应,利用因果学习直接基于观测数据训练,无需构建过程近似。在已有合成数据集和新构建的半合成数据集(基于真实事件日志)上的实验表明,SCOPE持续优于现有先进PresPM方法。该半合成设置作为可复用基准,推动后续序列化PresPM研究。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Prescriptive Process Monitoring (PresPM) recommends interventions during running business processes to optimize key performance indicators (KPIs). In realistic settings, interventions are rarely isolated: organizations need to align sequences of interventions to jointly steer the outcome of a case. Existing PresPM approaches only partially address this challenge. Many focus on a single intervention decision, while others treat multiple interventions independently, ignoring how they interact over time. Methods that do address these dependencies depend either on simulation or data augmentation to approximate the process to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent, which may create a reality gap and introduce bias. We introduce SCOPE (Sequential Causal Optimization of Process Interventions), a PresPM approach that learns aligned sequential intervention recommendations. SCOPE employs backward induction to estimate the effect of each candidate intervention action, propagating its impact from the final decision point back to the first. By leveraging causal learners, our method can utilize observational data directly, unlike methods that require constructing process approximations for RL. Experiments on both an existing synthetic dataset and a new semi-synthetic dataset show that SCOPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art PresPM techniques in optimizing the KPI. The novel semi-synthetic setup, based on a real-life event log, is provided as a reusable benchmark for future work on sequential PresPM.
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