arXiv:2512.18315stat.MEcs.AI2025-12

提出更简单的方法识别因果图中有效的调整集,提升估计效率。

On Efficient Adjustment for Micro Causal Effects in Summary Causal Graphs

  • 用简化公式重述可识别性条件,降低计算复杂度。
  • 发现更多有效调整集,提升实际应用灵活性。
  • 找出方差最小的最优调整集,增强估计精度。

流行病学等领域的观察性研究常依赖协变量调整来估计因果效应。经典图准则(如后门准则、广义调整准则)虽能识别有向无环图(DAG)中的有效调整集,但不适用于摘要因果图(SCG),后者是动态系统中常用的抽象结构,节点代表整个时间序列且可能含循环。已有研究在无隐藏混杂假设下给出了X_{t-γ}对Y_t的微因果效应是否可通过协变量调整识别的完整条件,但存在两大局限:一是条件复杂,需枚举多条路径,计算成本高;二是满足条件时仅提供两个有效调整集,灵活性不足。本文提出等价但更简洁的可识别性条件,并引入新准则,识别出更广泛的有效调整集;同时刻画其中渐近方差最小的准最优调整集。本工作在理论上推进了抽象因果图的因果推断,也为实践提供了更灵活高效的工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Observational studies in fields such as epidemiology often rely on covariate adjustment to estimate causal effects. Classical graphical criteria, like the back-door criterion and the generalized adjustment criterion, are powerful tools for identifying valid adjustment sets in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, these criteria are not directly applicable to summary causal graphs (SCGs), which are abstractions of DAGs commonly used in dynamic systems. In SCGs, each node typically represents an entire time series and may involve cycles, making classical criteria inapplicable for identifying causal effects. Recent work established complete conditions for determining whether the micro causal effect of a treatment or an exposure $X_{t-γ}$ on an outcome $Y_t$ is identifiable via covariate adjustment in SCGs, under the assumption of no hidden confounding. However, these identifiability conditions have two main limitations. First, they are complex, relying on cumbersome definitions and requiring the enumeration of multiple paths in the SCG, which can be computationally expensive. Second, when these conditions are satisfied, they only provide two valid adjustment sets, limiting flexibility in practical applications. In this paper, we propose an equivalent but simpler formulation of those identifiability conditions and introduce a new criterion that identifies a broader class of valid adjustment sets in SCGs. Additionally, we characterize the quasi-optimal adjustment set among these, i.e., the one that minimizes the asymptotic variance of the causal effect estimator. Our contributions offer both theoretical advancement and practical tools for more flexible and efficient causal inference in abstracted causal graphs.

因果推断因果图统计优化

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