融合语义与时间信息,动态调整预测策略,提升加密货币价格预测精度。
ASTIF: Adaptive Semantic-Temporal Integration for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting
- 通过双通道小语言模型提取市场语义线索和数值趋势。
- 实验显示在2020至2024年数据上优于Informer、TFT等主流模型。
- 自适应元学习机制可在市场波动时智能切换依赖通道,适合金融风控场景。
金融时间序列预测本质上是信息融合挑战,但现有模型多采用静态架构,难以整合异构知识源或应对快速市场变迁。传统方法仅依赖历史价格序列,常忽略政策不确定性和市场叙事等语义驱动因素。为此,我们提出ASTIF(自适应语义-时序融合模型),一种通过置信度驱动的元学习实现实时策略调整的混合智能系统。该框架包含三部分:使用MirrorPrompt的双通道小语言模型提取语义市场信号与数值趋势;混合LSTM与随机森林模型捕捉时序依赖;置信度感知的元学习器作为自适应推理层,根据实时不确定性动态调节各预测器贡献。在2020至2024年间涵盖人工智能主题加密货币及主要科技股的多样化数据集上评估表明,ASTIF优于主流深度学习与Transformer基线模型(如Informer、TFT)。消融实验进一步验证了自适应元学习机制的关键作用,其在市场动荡期有效转移依赖,降低风险。研究贡献了一个可扩展的知识融合方案,适用于非平稳环境下的定量与定性数据融合。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial time series forecasting is fundamentally an information fusion challenge, yet most existing models rely on static architectures that struggle to integrate heterogeneous knowledge sources or adjust to rapid regime shifts. Conventional approaches, relying exclusively on historical price sequences, often neglect the semantic drivers of volatility such as policy uncertainty and market narratives. To address these limitations, we propose the ASTIF (Adaptive Semantic-Temporal Integration for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting), a hybrid intelligent system that adapts its forecasting strategy in real time through confidence-based meta-learning. The framework integrates three complementary components. A dual-channel Small Language Model using MirrorPrompt extracts semantic market cues alongside numerical trends. A hybrid LSTM Random Forest model captures sequential temporal dependencies. A confidence-aware meta-learner functions as an adaptive inference layer, modulating each predictor's contribution based on its real-time uncertainty. Experimental evaluation on a diverse dataset of AI-focused cryptocurrencies and major technology stocks from 2020 to 2024 shows that ASTIF outperforms leading deep learning and Transformer baselines (e.g., Informer, TFT). The ablation studies further confirm the critical role of the adaptive meta-learning mechanism, which successfully mitigates risk by shifting reliance between semantic and temporal channels during market turbulence. The research contributes a scalable, knowledge-based solution for fusing quantitative and qualitative data in non-stationary environments.
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