arXiv:2512.19194cs.LG2025-12

基于因果异构图学习,提升慢阻肺共病风险预测准确率

Causal Heterogeneous Graph Learning Method for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Prediction

  • 构建患者-疾病异构图,融合因果推理与图神经网络
  • 在多个数据集上达到92.3%~94.7%的预测准确率
  • 适合临床风险预警与基层医疗辅助决策场景

由于基层医疗诊断与治疗能力不足,慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)急性加重的早期识别与预警仍存在短板,导致发病率高、负担重但筛查率低。为此,本文提出一种因果异构图表示学习方法(CHGRL),用于COPD共病风险预测:(a) 构建包含患者与疾病间交互关系的异构图;(b) 设计一种因果感知的异构图学习架构,结合因果推断机制与异构图学习,支持不同类型关系的因果建模;(c) 在模型中引入因果损失函数,在交叉熵分类损失基础上加入反事实推理损失和因果正则化损失。实验评估表明,该模型在多个基准上表现优异,预测准确率达到92.3%~94.7%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Due to the insufficient diagnosis and treatment capabilities at the grassroots level, there are still deficiencies in the early identification and early warning of acute exacerbation of Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), often resulting in a high prevalence rate and high burden, but the screening rate is relatively low. In order to gradually improve this situation. In this paper, this study develop a Causal Heterogeneous Graph Representation Learning (CHGRL) method for COPD comorbidity risk prediction method that: a) constructing a heterogeneous Our dataset includes the interaction between patients and diseases; b) A cause-aware heterogeneous graph learning architecture has been constructed, combining causal inference mechanisms with heterogeneous graph learning, which can support heterogeneous graph causal learning for different types of relationships; and c) Incorporate the causal loss function in the model design, and add counterfactual reasoning learning loss and causal regularization loss on the basis of the cross-entropy classification loss. We evaluate our method and compare its performance with strong GNN baselines. Following experimental evaluation, the proposed model demonstrates high detection accuracy.

慢阻肺因果学习图神经网络医疗预测

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