arXiv:2512.19410cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 4

从观测数据出发,研究动态系统何时可被学习。

Research Program: Theory of Learning in Dynamical Systems

  • 以预测下一个符号为视角,构建动态系统可学习性框架
  • 在有限观测后即可实现可靠预测,无需完整系统识别
  • 适合关注时序建模与系统理论的科研人员

现代学习系统越来越多地与随时间演化的、依赖于隐藏内部状态的数据交互。我们提出一个基本问题:仅从观测中能否学习此类动态系统?本文提出一个研究框架,通过下一符号预测的视角理解动态系统的可学习性。我们认为,可学习性应作为有限样本问题来研究,其基础应是系统本身的动态特性,而非生成序列的统计特性。为此,我们给出了由动态系统诱导的随机过程的可学习性定义,重点在于在有限预热期后,每个时间步均成立的统一保证。这引出了动态可学习性的概念,它捕捉了系统结构(如稳定性、混合性、可观测性及谱性质)如何决定可靠预测所需观测数量。我们在线性动态系统情形下展示了该框架:通过基于谱滤波的非正规方法,在有限观测后即可实现准确预测,而无需进行系统辨识。本文还综述了动态系统学习与经典PAC、在线及通用预测理论的关系,并提出了研究非线性和受控系统方向的建议。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern learning systems increasingly interact with data that evolve over time and depend on hidden internal state. We ask a basic question: when is such a dynamical system learnable from observations alone? This paper proposes a research program for understanding learnability in dynamical systems through the lens of next-token prediction. We argue that learnability in dynamical systems should be studied as a finite-sample question, and be based on the properties of the underlying dynamics rather than the statistical properties of the resulting sequence. To this end, we give a formulation of learnability for stochastic processes induced by dynamical systems, focusing on guarantees that hold uniformly at every time step after a finite burn-in period. This leads to a notion of dynamic learnability which captures how the structure of a system, such as stability, mixing, observability, and spectral properties, governs the number of observations required before reliable prediction becomes possible. We illustrate the framework in the case of linear dynamical systems, showing that accurate prediction can be achieved after finite observation without system identification, by leveraging improper methods based on spectral filtering. We survey the relationship between learning in dynamical systems and classical PAC, online, and universal prediction theories, and suggest directions for studying nonlinear and controlled systems.

动态系统可学习性时序预测

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