用正类-未标记学习识别墨西哥政府采购腐败,效果显著优于传统方法。
Learning from sanctioned government suppliers: A machine learning and network science approach to detecting fraud and corruption in Mexico
- 采用正类-未标记学习,融合领域红标与网络特征
- 模型比随机猜测高2.3倍,多捕获32%已知腐败合同
- 网络核心合约与高中心性供应商是关键判别信号
公共采购中的欺诈与腐败检测仍是全球政府面临的重大挑战。现有研究多基于合同层面的领域知识风险指标,部分还分析合同网络模式。监督学习的一大障碍是缺乏确认的非腐败样本,导致传统机器学习不适用。本研究利用墨西哥联邦资助采购的公开数据及企业处罚记录,采用正类-未标记(PU)学习算法,整合领域红标与网络衍生特征,识别潜在腐败合同。最佳PU模型平均比随机猜测高出2.3倍,多捕获32%已知腐败案例,显著优于仅依赖传统红标的方案。Shapley可解释性分析显示,网络特征(尤其是网络核心合约及高特征向量中心性供应商)最为关键;传统红标虽提升性能,但主要作用于竞争性招标合同。该方法可支持墨西哥执法机构,亦可适配其他国别场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Detecting fraud and corruption in public procurement remains a major challenge for governments worldwide. Most research to-date builds on domain-knowledge-based corruption risk indicators of individual contract-level features and some also analyzes contracting network patterns. A critical barrier for supervised machine learning is the absence of confirmed non-corrupt, negative, examples, which makes conventional machine learning inappropriate for this task. Using publicly available data on federally funded procurement in Mexico and company sanction records, this study implements positive-unlabeled (PU) learning algorithms that integrate domain-knowledge-based red flags with network-derived features to identify likely corrupt and fraudulent contracts. The best-performing PU model on average captures 32 percent more known positives and performs on average 2.3 times better than random guessing, substantially outperforming approaches based solely on traditional red flags. The analysis of the Shapley Additive Explanations reveals that network-derived features, particularly those associated with contracts in the network core or suppliers with high eigenvector centrality, are the most important. Traditional red flags further enhance model performance in line with expectations, albeit mainly for contracts awarded through competitive tenders. This methodology can support law enforcement in Mexico, and it can be adapted to other national contexts too.
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