arXiv:2512.19506cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 3

将气候领域知识嵌入时空网络,实现高效高精度的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动预测。

DK-STN: A Domain Knowledge Embedded Spatio-Temporal Network Model for MJO Forecast

  • 在时空网络中融入气候领域知识,提升模型对气候数据的建模能力。
  • 输入7天数据,可预测28天后天气,误差仅2-3天,跨季节稳定。
  • 相比主流气象模型,速度快1-2秒,且不受季节影响,适合实时预报。

理解与预测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(MJO)对降水预报和防灾至关重要。传统数值天气预报(NWP)方法资源消耗大、耗时长且季节敏感(冬季表现更优),而现有人工神经网络(ANN)方法虽效率高,但预测准确率始终不及最先进的欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模型的28天预报水平,因无法有效处理气候数据。本文提出一种嵌入领域知识的时空网络(DK-STN),结合了NWP与ANN的优势,显著提升神经网络预测精度,同时保持高效与稳定。该模型基于时空网络(STN),通过两种关键机制嵌入领域知识:(i)引入领域知识增强方法;(ii)将领域知识处理模块融入训练过程。使用第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据(ERA5)进行评估,对比对象为ECMWF。输入7天气候数据后,DK-STN可在1-2秒内生成未来28天的可靠预报,各季节误差仅为2-3天。其预测精度等同于ECMWF,但效率与稳定性显著更优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding and predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is fundamental for precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention. To date, long-term and accurate MJO prediction has remained a challenge for researchers. Conventional MJO prediction methods using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) are resource-intensive, time-consuming, and highly unstable (most NWP methods are sensitive to seasons, with better MJO forecast results in winter). While existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods save resources and speed forecasting, their accuracy never reaches the 28 days predicted by the state-of-the-art NWP method, i.e., the operational forecasts from ECMWF, since neural networks cannot handle climate data effectively. In this paper, we present a Domain Knowledge Embedded Spatio-Temporal Network (DK-STN), a stable neural network model for accurate and efficient MJO forecasting. It combines the benefits of NWP and ANN methods and successfully improves the forecast accuracy of ANN methods while maintaining a high level of efficiency and stability. We begin with a spatial-temporal network (STN) and embed domain knowledge in it using two key methods: (i) applying a domain knowledge enhancement method and (ii) integrating a domain knowledge processing method into network training. We evaluated DK-STN with the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and compared it with ECMWF. Given 7 days of climate data as input, DK-STN can generate reliable forecasts for the following 28 days in 1-2 seconds, with an error of only 2-3 days in different seasons. DK-STN significantly exceeds ECMWF in that its forecast accuracy is equivalent to ECMWF's, while its efficiency and stability are significantly superior.

MJO预测时空网络领域知识气候建模

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