arXiv:2512.19909cs.LGcs.AI2025-12被引 1

用深度生成模型高效建模地震波传播的非遍历效应,提升预测速度与精度。

Modeling Non-Ergodic Path Effects Using Conditional Generative Model for Fourier Amplitude Spectra

  • 基于条件变分自编码器,直接从数据学习空间模式与频间相关性。
  • 10秒内完成1万站点、1000频率的预测,内存占用仅数GB。
  • 无需预设相关函数,适合大规模地震风险评估应用。

近年来,非遍历地震动模型(GMM)通过显式建模震源、场地和路径效应的空间系统性差异,将标准差降低至遍历模型的30%-40%,从而实现更精准的场地特定地震危险性分析。现有非遍历GMM多依赖高斯过程(GP)方法,需预先设定相关函数,计算成本高,难以支持大规模预测。本文提出一种名为条件生成模型傅里叶振幅谱(CGM-FAS)的深度学习方法,替代传统GP方法,用于建模傅里叶振幅谱(FAS)中的非遍历路径效应。CGM-FAS采用条件变分自编码器架构,以地震与台站的地理坐标作为条件变量,直接从旧金山湾区地震数据中学习空间模式与频间相关性。实验对比显示,其预测结果与近期基于GP的区域GMM一致。此外,CGM-FAS无需预设相关函数,可捕捉频间相关性,且预测速度极快:在几GB内存下,10秒内即可生成10,000个站点、1,000个频率的路径效应图。通过调节超参数,可使生成路径效应的变异性与基于GP的经验GMM保持一致。该工作展示了在多频率、大空间范围内高效进行非遍历地震动预测的可行方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent developments in non-ergodic ground-motion models (GMMs) explicitly model systematic spatial variations in source, site, and path effects, reducing standard deviation to 30-40% of ergodic models and enabling more accurate site-specific seismic hazard analysis. Current non-ergodic GMMs rely on Gaussian Process (GP) methods with prescribed correlation functions and thus have computational limitations for large-scale predictions. This study proposes a deep-learning approach called Conditional Generative Modeling for Fourier Amplitude Spectra (CGM-FAS) as an alternative to GP-based methods for modeling non-ergodic path effects in Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS). CGM-FAS uses a Conditional Variational Autoencoder architecture to learn spatial patterns and interfrequency correlation directly from data by using geographical coordinates of earthquakes and stations as conditional variables. Using San Francisco Bay Area earthquake data, we compare CGM-FAS against a recent GP-based GMM for the region and demonstrate consistent predictions of non-ergodic path effects. Additionally, CGM-FAS offers advantages compared to GP-based approaches in learning spatial patterns without prescribed correlation functions, capturing interfrequency correlations, and enabling rapid predictions, generating maps for 10,000 sites across 1,000 frequencies within 10 seconds using a few GB of memory. CGM-FAS hyperparameters can be tuned to ensure generated path effects exhibit variability consistent with the GP-based empirical GMM. This work demonstrates a promising direction for efficient non-ergodic ground-motion prediction across multiple frequencies and large spatial domains.

地震动模拟生成模型非遍历效应深度学习

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