arXiv:2512.19935cs.LGcs.AI2025-12

金融模型在经济压力下对抗脆弱性显著增强,需按经济周期评估鲁棒性。

Conditional Adversarial Fragility in Financial Machine Learning under Macroeconomic Stress

  • 基于经济波动划分时段,动态评估模型对抗攻击下的表现差异。
  • 压力期模型准确率、决策阈值与风险指标均大幅下降,假阴性率上升。
  • 结合大模型语义审计,实现可解释的模型治理,适合高风险金融场景。

金融机器学习模型在非平稳经济环境中运行,但对抗鲁棒性通常在静态假设下评估。本文提出条件对抗脆弱性,即经济压力时期对抗脆弱性系统性加剧的现象。针对时序表格型金融分类任务,构建基于外部经济压力指标的鲁棒性评估框架,以波动率分段作为经济状态代理,保持模型结构、攻击方法和评估协议不变,对比平静与压力期模型表现。基准预测性能在不同周期中相近,表明经济压力本身不导致性能天然下降;但在对抗扰动下,压力期模型在预测准确率、操作阈值和风险敏感结果上均出现显著退化。进一步发现该退化导致假阴性率上升,增加高风险案例漏检风险。为补充量化指标,引入基于大语言模型的语义审计解释层。结果表明,金融机器学习中的对抗鲁棒性具有周期依赖性,需在高风险部署中采用压力感知的风险评估方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Machine learning models used in financial decision systems operate in nonstationary economic environments, yet adversarial robustness is typically evaluated under static assumptions. This work introduces Conditional Adversarial Fragility, a regime dependent phenomenon in which adversarial vulnerability is systematically amplified during periods of macroeconomic stress. We propose a regime aware evaluation framework for time indexed tabular financial classification tasks that conditions robustness assessment on external indicators of economic stress. Using volatility based regime segmentation as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions, we evaluate model behavior across calm and stress periods while holding model architecture, attack methodology, and evaluation protocols constant. Baseline predictive performance remains comparable across regimes, indicating that economic stress alone does not induce inherent performance degradation. Under adversarial perturbations, however, models operating during stress regimes exhibit substantially greater degradation across predictive accuracy, operational decision thresholds, and risk sensitive outcomes. We further demonstrate that this amplification propagates to increased false negative rates, elevating the risk of missed high risk cases during adverse conditions. To complement numerical robustness metrics, we introduce an interpretive governance layer based on semantic auditing of model explanations using large language models. Together, these results demonstrate that adversarial robustness in financial machine learning is a regime dependent property and motivate stress aware approaches to model risk assessment in high stakes financial deployments.

金融AI对抗脆弱性风险评估大模型审计

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