用大模型提升时间序列预测精度,尤其在数据少时表现更优。
LoFT-LLM: Low-Frequency Time-Series Forecasting with Large Language Models
- 分频处理:先提取低频趋势,再补高频波动
- 在金融与能源数据上,少样本下误差降低15%以上
- 结合领域知识提示,提升预测可解释性
真实世界中的时间序列预测(如金融、能源)常面临训练数据有限和复杂噪声动态的挑战。现有深度模型通常使用完整时间窗口监督,其中包含大量高频噪声并掩盖长期趋势。此外,富含领域信息的辅助变量在少样本场景下往往未被充分利用。为此,我们提出LoFT-LLM,一种基于频率感知的预测框架,将低频学习与大语言模型(LLM)语义校准相结合。首先,局部谱块中的低频特征由分块低频建模模块(PLFM)提取;其次,残差学习器捕捉高频变化;最后,微调后的LLM通过结构化自然语言提示引入辅助上下文和领域知识,优化预测结果。在金融与能源数据集上的大量实验表明,LoFT-LLM在全数据与少样本场景下均显著优于强基线,实现更高精度、更强鲁棒性与更好可解释性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time-series forecasting in real-world applications such as finance and energy often faces challenges due to limited training data and complex, noisy temporal dynamics. Existing deep forecasting models typically supervise predictions using full-length temporal windows, which include substantial high-frequency noise and obscure long-term trends. Moreover, auxiliary variables containing rich domain-specific information are often underutilized, especially in few-shot settings. To address these challenges, we propose LoFT-LLM, a frequency-aware forecasting pipeline that integrates low-frequency learning with semantic calibration via a large language model (LLM). Firstly, a Patch Low-Frequency forecasting Module (PLFM) extracts stable low-frequency trends from localized spectral patches. Secondly, a residual learner then models high-frequency variations. Finally, a fine-tuned LLM refines the predictions by incorporating auxiliary context and domain knowledge through structured natural language prompts. Extensive experiments on financial and energy datasets demonstrate that LoFT-LLM significantly outperforms strong baselines under both full-data and few-shot regimes, delivering superior accuracy, robustness, and interpretability.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。