统一得分与距离检验,提出高效通用的拟参数拟合优度测试方法
Semiparametric KSD test: unifying score and distance-based approaches for goodness-of-fit testing
- 基于指数倾斜模型构建等价于积分概率度量的得分检验
- 新方法在无须显式似然下仍具普适一致性与帕特曼效率
- 适用于似然难计算但得分易得的模型,如核指数族和条件高斯
拟合优度(GoF)检验是评估模型适用性的基础。得分检验因只需在零假设下拟合模型一次而具有吸引力,但难以扩展至强大的非参数备择假设,主要受限于缺乏合适的得分函数。通过一类指数倾斜模型,我们证明所得得分检验等价于由函数类索引的积分概率度量(IPMs)检验;当函数类足够丰富时,检验具有普遍一致性。这一简洁而深刻的视角使经典距离检验——包括科尔莫戈罗夫-斯米尔诺夫、一阶沃尔什距离和最大均值差异——可被重新解释为基于得分的构造。在此基础上,我们提出一种新的非参数得分检验:半参数核化Stein散度(SKSD)检验,其由核化Stein函数类诱导的特定IPM定义。相比其他非参数得分检验,SKSD检验计算高效,可兼容一般扰动参数估计器,并通过通用参数自助法实现推断。该检验具有普遍一致性并达到帕特曼效率。此外,结合Stein恒等式,它能对似然不可计算但得分可得的模型提供简单有效的拟合优度检验。我们在核指数族和条件高斯模型上展示了方法的强大性能,其功效与针对特定任务的正态性检验(如Anderson-Darling和Lilliefors)相当,尽管本方法面向广义非参数备择假设。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests are fundamental for assessing model adequacy. Score-based tests are appealing because they require fitting the model only once under the null. However, extending them to powerful nonparametric alternatives is difficult due to the lack of suitable score functions. Through a class of exponentially tilted models, we show that the resulting score-based GoF tests are equivalent to the tests based on integral probability metrics (IPMs) indexed by a function class. When the class is rich, the test is universally consistent. This simple yet insightful perspective enables reinterpretation of classical distance-based testing procedures-including those based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance, Wasserstein-1 distance, and maximum mean discrepancy-as arising from score-based constructions. Building on this insight, we propose a new nonparametric score-based GoF test through a special class of IPM induced by kernelized Stein's function class, called semiparametric kernelized Stein discrepancy (SKSD) test. Compared with other nonparametric score-based tests, the SKSD test is computationally efficient and accommodates general nuisance-parameter estimators, supported by a generic parametric bootstrap procedure. The SKSD test is universally consistent and attains Pitman efficiency. Moreover, SKSD test provides simple GoF tests for models with intractable likelihoods but tractable scores with the help of Stein's identity and we use two popular models, kernel exponential family and conditional Gaussian models, to illustrate the power of our method. Our method achieves power comparable to task-specific normality tests such as Anderson-Darling and Lilliefors, despite being designed for general nonparametric alternatives.
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