提出非线性AFT模型,用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德表示法建模生存时间与协变量的复杂关系。
A Structured Nonparametric Framework for Nonlinear Accelerated Failure Time Models (KAN-AFT)
- 用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德表示法构建非线性回归函数,替代传统线性假设。
- 在模拟和临床数据中均表现良好,能准确识别线性和非线性效应。
- 适合需要解释生存分析中复杂协变量影响的医学研究者使用。
加速失效时间(AFT)模型为寿命数据分析提供了直接且可解释的时间尺度描述,但传统形式依赖线性预测器,难以刻画非线性关系。在具有复杂协变量结构和不同删失机制的异质临床环境中,标准生存模型如Cox比例风险模型或传统AFT模型可能因结构假设过强而不适用。本文提出一种结构化的非参数化AFT扩展框架,其中对数生存时间的回归函数由未知的光滑函数表示,该函数通过柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德表示法实现。在独立右删失条件下正式定义了非线性AFT估计量,并证明该函数类严格包含经典线性AFT模型作为特例。通过统一框架估计,支持多种删失调整损失函数,如Buckley-James、逆概率删失权重和变换方法。结构正则化与剪枝促进模型简洁性,符号近似可获得学习到的分量函数的解析表达式。模拟研究表明,该方法在合适时能恢复线性结构,存在非线性时亦可有效捕捉。多个临床数据集的应用显示其具备竞争性预测性能和透明的协变量效应估计能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accelerated failure time (AFT) models provide a direct and interpretable time-scale description of covariate effects in lifetime data analysis, but classical formulations rely on linear predictors and are therefore limited in their ability to represent nonlinear relationships. Moreover, in heterogeneous clinical settings with complex covariate structures and varying censoring mechanisms, standard survival models such as the Cox proportional hazards model or AFT formulations may be inadequate due to restrictive structural assumptions. We propose a structured nonparametric extension of the AFT framework in which the regression function governing log-survival time is an unknown smooth function represented through Kolmogorov--Arnold representations. We formalize the nonlinear AFT estimand under independent right-censoring and show that the proposed function class strictly contains the classical linear AFT model as a special case. Estimation is carried out through a unified framework that accommodates several censoring-adjusted losses such as Buckley--James, inverse probability of censoring weight and transformation methods. Structural regularization and pruning promote parsimony, and symbolic approximation yields analytic representations of learned component functions. Simulation studies show that the method recovers linear structure when appropriate and captures nonlinear effects when present. Applications to multiple clinical datasets demonstrate competitive predictive performance and transparent covariate-effect estimation.
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