arXiv:2512.20868cs.ROcs.SY2025-12被引 1

通过临界慢化现象,无需模型即可实时预警系统失控。

Early warning signals for loss of control

  • 基于系统临界慢化的动力学指标监测稳定性
  • 在无人机实验中成功提前预警失控风险
  • 适用于飞机、自动驾驶等复杂控制系统的实时安全监控

维持反馈系统的稳定性(如飞机、自主机器人、生物与生理系统)依赖于持续监控行为并调整输入。渐进性损伤会使控制变得脆弱,通常在微小扰动引发失稳前难以察觉。传统工程方法依赖精确系统模型计算安全操作指令,但当系统因损伤偏离模型时,该方法失效。本文展示,通过韧性动力学指标可监测系统接近失稳的过程。该整体安全监控不依赖系统模型,基于临界慢化这一普遍现象——已在气候、生物等复杂非线性系统中被证实。在无人机上的实验证明其有效性,为实时早期预警系统提供了新路径,并为弹性系统设计探索(即“试错”)提供实证指导。由于原理通用,该方法或适用于反应堆、飞机、自动驾驶汽车等更广泛的受控系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control fragile. This tends to go unnoticed until a small perturbation induces instability (i.e. loss of control). Traditional methods in the field of engineering rely on accurate system models to compute a safe set of operating instructions, which become invalid when the, possibly damaged, system diverges from its model. Here we demonstrate that the approach of such a feedback system towards instability can nonetheless be monitored through dynamical indicators of resilience. This holistic system safety monitor does not rely on a system model and is based on the generic phenomenon of critical slowing down, shown to occur in the climate, biology and other complex nonlinear systems approaching criticality. Our findings for engineered devices opens up a wide range of applications involving real-time early warning systems as well as an empirical guidance of resilient system design exploration, or "tinkering". While we demonstrate the validity using drones, the generic nature of the underlying principles suggest that these indicators could apply across a wider class of controlled systems including reactors, aircraft, and self-driving cars.

系统安全早期预警临界慢化无人机

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