统一建模云原生系统多任务时序,提升资源竞争下的预测准确性。
Shared Representation Learning for High-Dimensional Multi-Task Forecasting under Resource Contention in Cloud-Native Backends
- 构建共享编码结构与状态融合机制,跨尺度捕捉趋势与扰动。
- 引入跨任务传播模块,建模资源争用等复杂依赖关系,误差降低12%-18%。
- 动态调参机制适应负载突变,适合高动态云环境智能运维使用。
本研究提出一种统一的高维多任务时间序列预测框架,以应对云原生后端系统在高动态负载、耦合指标和并行任务下的预测需求。该方法构建共享编码结构,统一表征多样监控指标,并采用状态融合机制捕捉不同时间尺度的趋势变化与局部扰动。引入跨任务结构传播模块,建模节点间的潜在依赖关系,使模型能够理解由资源争用、链路交互和服务拓扑变化形成的复杂结构模式。为增强对非平稳行为的适应性,框架集成动态调节机制,根据系统状态自动调整内部特征流,确保在突发负载波动、拓扑漂移和资源抖动下仍能保持稳定预测。实验评估在多个指标上对比多种模型,通过超参数敏感性、环境敏感性和数据敏感性分析验证了框架的有效性。结果表明,所提方法在多个误差指标上表现更优,在不同运行条件下均提供更准确的未来状态表征。总体而言,该统一预测框架为云原生系统中高维、多任务、强动态环境提供了可靠的预测能力,支撑智能后端管理。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study proposes a unified forecasting framework for high-dimensional multi-task time series to meet the prediction demands of cloud native backend systems operating under highly dynamic loads, coupled metrics, and parallel tasks. The method builds a shared encoding structure to represent diverse monitoring indicators in a unified manner and employs a state fusion mechanism to capture trend changes and local disturbances across different time scales. A cross-task structural propagation module is introduced to model potential dependencies among nodes, enabling the model to understand complex structural patterns formed by resource contention, link interactions, and changes in service topology. To enhance adaptability to non-stationary behaviors, the framework incorporates a dynamic adjustment mechanism that automatically regulates internal feature flows according to system state changes, ensuring stable predictions in the presence of sudden load shifts, topology drift, and resource jitter. The experimental evaluation compares multiple models across various metrics and verifies the effectiveness of the framework through analyses of hyperparameter sensitivity, environmental sensitivity, and data sensitivity. The results show that the proposed method achieves superior performance on several error metrics and provides more accurate representations of future states under different operating conditions. Overall, the unified forecasting framework offers reliable predictive capability for high-dimensional, multi-task, and strongly dynamic environments in cloud native systems and provides essential technical support for intelligent backend management.
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