arXiv:2512.21798q-fin.STcs.AI2025-12被引 1

用深度生成模型合成金融数据,可替代真实数据做投资组合与风险分析。

Deep Generative Models for Synthetic Financial Data: Applications to Portfolio and Risk Modeling

  • 用TimeGAN和VAE生成模拟收益率序列,保留真实市场动态特征。
  • TimeGAN生成数据在波动率、自相关性上接近真实数据,优化结果误差小于5%。
  • 适合需保护隐私或缺乏数据的研究者,尤其关注时序建模的风控场景。

合成金融数据为量化金融实证研究中的隐私、可及性和可复现性难题提供了实用解决方案。本文研究了深度生成模型(时间序列生成对抗网络TimeGAN和变分自编码器VAE)在生成用于投资组合构建与风险建模的逼真合成金融收益序列中的应用。以标普500历史日收益率为基准,在相似市场条件下生成合成数据集,并通过统计相似性指标、时间结构检验及下游金融任务进行评估。结果显示,TimeGAN生成的数据在分布形态、波动模式和自相关行为上均接近真实收益;应用于均值-方差投资组合优化时,其得到的投资组合权重、夏普比率和风险水平与真实数据结果差异较小。VAE训练更稳定,但会平滑极端市场波动,影响风险估计。研究表明,只要能捕捉时间动态,合成数据可作为真实金融数据的可靠替代,具备隐私保护、成本低、可复现等优势,适用于金融实验与模型开发。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Synthetic financial data provides a practical solution to the privacy, accessibility, and reproducibility challenges that often constrain empirical research in quantitative finance. This paper investigates the use of deep generative models, specifically Time-series Generative Adversarial Networks (TimeGAN) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to generate realistic synthetic financial return series for portfolio construction and risk modeling applications. Using historical daily returns from the S and P 500 as a benchmark, we generate synthetic datasets under comparable market conditions and evaluate them using statistical similarity metrics, temporal structure tests, and downstream financial tasks. The study shows that TimeGAN produces synthetic data with distributional shapes, volatility patterns, and autocorrelation behaviour that are close to those observed in real returns. When applied to mean--variance portfolio optimization, the resulting synthetic datasets lead to portfolio weights, Sharpe ratios, and risk levels that remain close to those obtained from real data. The VAE provides more stable training but tends to smooth extreme market movements, which affects risk estimation. Finally, the analysis supports the use of synthetic datasets as substitutes for real financial data in portfolio analysis and risk simulation, particularly when models are able to capture temporal dynamics. Synthetic data therefore provides a privacy-preserving, cost-effective, and reproducible tool for financial experimentation and model development.

金融生成时序生成风险建模隐私保护

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