arXiv:2512.21897cs.LGcs.AI2025-12

融合分子结构、临床协议与疾病知识,提升临床试验结果预测准确率

MMCTOP: A Multimodal Textualization and Mixture-of-Experts Framework for Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction

  • 将多源生物医学数据转化为结构化文本,用专家路由机制融合特征
  • 在多个数据集上精度、F1和AUC均优于单模态与传统多模态方法
  • 适合医疗决策支持系统开发,尤其关注可解释性与可复现性的研究者

针对高维生物医学信息中多模态数据融合的挑战,我们提出MMCTOP框架,整合三类异构生物医学信号:(i) 分子结构表征,(ii) 临床试验协议元数据与长篇入选标准描述,(iii) 疾病本体。MMCTOP结合基于模式的文本化与输入保真度验证,采用领域专用编码器生成对齐嵌入,并通过引入药物-疾病条件稀疏混合专家(SMoE)的Transformer主干网络进行融合。该设计显式支持治疗与试验设计子空间的专化,同时通过top-k路由保持计算可扩展性。在基准数据集上,MMCTOP在精度、F1和AUC上持续优于单模态与多模态基线;消融实验表明,基于模式的文本化与选择性专家路由显著提升性能与稳定性。此外,通过温度缩放获得校准概率,确保下游决策支持中的风险估计可靠性。总体而言,MMCTOP通过受控叙事归一化、上下文条件专家融合与操作保障,推进了多模态临床试验建模的发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Addressing the challenge of multimodal data fusion in high-dimensional biomedical informatics, we propose MMCTOP, a MultiModal Clinical-Trial Outcome Prediction framework that integrates heterogeneous biomedical signals spanning (i) molecular structure representations, (ii) protocol metadata and long-form eligibility narratives, and (iii) disease ontologies. MMCTOP couples schema-guided textualization and input-fidelity validation with modality-aware representation learning, in which domain-specific encoders generate aligned embeddings that are fused by a transformer backbone augmented with a drug-disease-conditioned sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE). This design explicitly supports specialization across therapeutic and design subspaces while maintaining scalable computation through top-k routing. MMCTOP achieves consistent improvements in precision, F1, and AUC over unimodal and multimodal baselines on benchmark datasets, and ablations show that schema-guided textualization and selective expert routing contribute materially to performance and stability. We additionally apply temperature scaling to obtain calibrated probabilities, ensuring reliable risk estimation for downstream decision support. Overall, MMCTOP advances multimodal trial modeling by combining controlled narrative normalization, context-conditioned expert fusion, and operational safeguards aimed at auditability and reproducibility in biomedical informatics.

临床试验多模态融合专家网络生物医学AI

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