arXiv:2512.22152physics.ao-phcs.AI2025-12被引 2

用稀疏卫星数据预测海面变化,7天预报精度超现有系统。

Neural ocean forecasting from sparse satellite-derived observations: a case-study for SSH dynamics and altimetry data

  • 结合U-Net与4DVarNet,从零散观测数据直接预测海面动态。
  • 7天预报在高变率区域误差降低,速度方向预测正确率达90%以上。
  • 适合海洋预报、气候研究者,推动机器学习在海洋学的标准化应用。

我们提出一个端到端深度学习框架,基于稀疏卫星高度计数据实现全球海表动态的短期预报。模型融合了用于图像分割的U-Net和用于时空插值的4DVarNet架构,针对稀疏星载垂向高度计观测序列,预测7天内海平面异常(SLA)与海表流场。训练数据来自GLORYS12海洋再分析产品,通过合成垂向采样模式模拟真实观测覆盖。任务设定为序列到序列映射:输入为部分SLA快照,目标为未来全域SLA图。评估指标包括归一化均方根误差(nRMSE)、平均有效分辨率及速度大小与方向的预测准确率,并与运营级Mercator Ocean预报产品对比。结果表明,神经网络预报在所有预报时效上均优于基线,尤其在高变率区域表现显著。该框架构建于OceanBench基准测试倡议下,支持可复现性与标准化评估。研究表明,即使在数据稀疏条件下,端到端神经预报模型也具备在业务海洋学中应用的可行性与潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We present an end-to-end deep learning framework for short-term forecasting of global sea surface dynamics based on sparse satellite altimetry data. Building on two state-of-the-art architectures: U-Net and 4DVarNet, originally developed for image segmentation and spatiotemporal interpolation respectively, we adapt the models to forecast the sea level anomaly and sea surface currents over a 7-day horizon using sequences of sparse nadir altimeters observations. The model is trained on data from the GLORYS12 operational ocean reanalysis, with synthetic nadir sampling patterns applied to simulate realistic observational coverage. The forecasting task is formulated as a sequence-to-sequence mapping, with the input comprising partial sea level anomaly (SLA) snapshots and the target being the corresponding future full-field SLA maps. We evaluate model performance using (i) normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE), (ii) averaged effective resolution, (iii) percentage of correctly predicted velocities magnitudes and angles, and benchmark results against the operational Mercator Ocean forecast product. Results show that end-to-end neural forecasts outperform the baseline across all lead times, with particularly notable improvements in high variability regions. Our framework is developed within the OceanBench benchmarking initiative, promoting reproducibility and standardized evaluation in ocean machine learning. These results demonstrate the feasibility and potential of end-to-end neural forecasting models for operational oceanography, even in data-sparse conditions.

海洋预报深度学习卫星数据序列建模

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