分析在线幻想板球中技能的作用，证明成绩主要由技能决定。
Analyzing Skill Element in Online Fantasy Cricket
- 构建多种选人策略，结合近期表现与统计优化。
- 在印度板球联赛2024数据上验证，技能显著影响排名与收益。
- 动态模型模拟选手适应行为，支持技能主导结论。
在线幻想板球已成为大规模竞技系统，参与者根据真实球员表现组建虚拟队伍进行竞争。随着其迅速发展，人们开始质疑胜负是源于技能还是运气。本文构建统计框架，评估平台中技能的作用。通过分析基于近期状态、历史数据、统计优化和多准则决策的确定性与随机性选人策略，对比其在‘大亨赛’与‘四倍或无’两种赛制下的得分、排名及收益表现。进一步引入动态锦标赛模型，模拟选手群体通过正向收益反馈的软最大化重赋权机制进行演化。基于印度板球联赛2024数据的大量数值实验表明，技能在决定成功中起关键作用，为幻想体育平台的技能属性提供定量证据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Online fantasy cricket has emerged as large-scale competitive systems in which participants construct virtual teams and compete based on real-world player performances. This massive growth has been accompanied by important questions about whether outcomes are primarily driven by skill or chance. We develop a statistical framework to assess the role of skill in determining success on these platforms. We construct and analyze a range of deterministic and stochastic team selection strategies, based on recent form, historical statistics, statistical optimization, and multi-criteria decision making. Strategy performance is evaluated based on points, ranks, and payoff under two contest structures Mega and 4x or Nothing. An extensive comparison between different strategies is made to find an optimal set of strategies. To capture adaptive behavior, we further introduce a dynamic tournament model in which agent populations evolve through a softmax reweighting mechanism proportional to positive payoff realizations. We demonstrate our work by running extensive numerical experiments on the IPL 2024 dataset. The results provide quantitative evidence in favor of the skill element present in online fantasy cricket platforms.
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