用并行门控单元模型提升比特币价格预测精度
Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Using Parallel Gated Recurrent Units
- 设计并行门控网络,分别处理不同价格特征输入
- 在15窗口下实现2.641%的平均绝对百分比误差
- 适合关注加密货币短期交易与低计算成本方案的投资者
随着比特币等加密货币的兴起,越来越多投资与商业活动转向线上。比特币利用区块链技术实现安全、透明、可追溯且不可篡改的交易,同时表现出显著的价格波动,引发金融领域的广泛关注。因此,大量投资者转向加密货币市场,价格预测成为经济领域的重要挑战。本文提出一种新型深度学习模型——并行门控循环单元(PGRU),通过多个并行独立的循环神经网络分别处理不同的价格相关特征,再由神经网络融合输出以预测未来价格。实验结果显示,在窗口长度为20和15时,模型分别达到3.243%和2.641%的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)。相比现有方法,该模型在更少输入数据和更低计算成本下实现了更高精度与效率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
According to the advent of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, many investments and businesses are now conducted online through cryptocurrencies. Among them, Bitcoin uses blockchain technology to make transactions secure, transparent, traceable, and immutable. It also exhibits significant price fluctuations and performance, which has attracted substantial attention, especially in financial sectors. Consequently, a wide range of investors and individuals have turned to investing in the cryptocurrency market. One of the most important challenges in economics is price forecasting for future trades. Cryptocurrencies are no exception, and investors are looking for methods to predict prices; various theories and methods have been proposed in this field. This paper presents a new deep model, called \emph{Parallel Gated Recurrent Units} (PGRU), for cryptocurrency price prediction. In this model, recurrent neural networks forecast prices in a parallel and independent way. The parallel networks utilize different inputs, each representing distinct price-related features. Finally, the outputs of the parallel networks are combined by a neural network to forecast the future price of cryptocurrencies. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model achieves mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of 3.243% and 2.641% for window lengths 20 and 15, respectively. Our method therefore attains higher accuracy and efficiency with fewer input data and lower computational cost compared to existing methods.
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