分析中国疫情传播规律，揭示社交活动是后期主要传播源。
Discovering Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in China
- 用自然语言处理构建病例传播链，结合人口流动数据追踪疫情
- 79%患者症状出现5天内入院，接触者也快速就医
- 早期传自湖北，后期传播多源于社交活动
通过回顾性分析大规模检测、隔离和流调等公共卫生干预措施，可识别有效遏制新冠疫情的机制。本文基于中国公开的追踪数据，研究了SARS-CoV-2的传播模式（如感染类型与可能传播源）。我们收集了地方卫健委、中国疾控中心及地方政府社交媒体发布的病例报告，利用自然语言处理与人工校验构建传播链。进一步结合武汉人口流动数据，量化并可视化疫情的时间与空间传播动态。结果显示存在显著区域差异，大城市感染更多，可能由社会活动驱动。79%的有症状患者在症状出现后5天内住院，与确诊病例接触者也在5天内主动就医。传播源随时间变化：早期病例多与湖北旅行或接触者有关，后期则越来越多与社交活动相关。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A comprehensive retrospective analysis of public health interventions, such as large scale testing, quarantining, and contact tracing, can help identify mechanisms most effective in mitigating COVID-19. We investigate China based SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns (e.g., infection type and likely transmission source) using publicly released tracking data. We collect case reports from local health commissions, the Chinese CDC, and official local government social media, then apply NLP and manual curation to construct transmission/tracking chains. We further analyze tracking data together with Wuhan population mobility data to quantify and visualize temporal and spatial spread dynamics. Results indicate substantial regional differences, with larger cities showing more infections, likely driven by social activities. Most symptomatic individuals (79\%) were hospitalized within 5 days of symptom onset, and those with confirmed-case contact sought admission in under 5 days. Infection sources also shifted over time: early cases were largely linked to travel to (or contact with travelers from) Hubei Province, while later transmission was increasingly associated with social activities.
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