arXiv:2512.23755cs.LGcs.AI2025-12

不依赖外部数据,从时间序列中自动提取人类决策因素。

HINTS: Extraction of Human Insights from Time-Series Without External Sources

  • 基于弗里德金-约翰森模型构建自监督框架,从残差中挖掘隐含的人类行为模式。
  • 在9个真实数据集上提升预测精度,关键事件与提取因子高度语义对齐。
  • 适合需要可解释性金融预测的场景,尤其在无外部数据时优势明显。

人类决策、情绪与集体心理是影响金融与经济系统时间动态的关键因素。现有许多时间序列预测模型依赖新闻、社交媒体等外部数据来捕捉这些因素,但带来高昂的财务、计算与实践成本。本文提出HINTS,一种无需外部数据的自监督学习框架,从时间序列残差中内生提取这些潜在因素。HINTS利用弗里德金-约翰森(FJ)意见动态模型作为结构先验,建模社会影响力、记忆与偏见的演化。提取的人类因素被整合进先进主干模型作为注意力图。在九个真实世界和基准数据集上的实验表明,HINTS持续提升预测准确性。多个案例研究与消融实验验证了其可解释性,显示提取因子与真实事件具有强语义一致性,证明了HINTS的实际价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Human decision-making, emotions, and collective psychology are complex factors that shape the temporal dynamics observed in financial and economic systems. Many recent time series forecasting models leverage external sources (e.g., news and social media) to capture human factors, but these approaches incur high data dependency costs in terms of financial, computational, and practical implications. In this study, we propose HINTS, a self-supervised learning framework that extracts these latent factors endogenously from time series residuals without external data. HINTS leverages the Friedkin-Johnsen (FJ) opinion dynamics model as a structural inductive bias to model evolving social influence, memory, and bias patterns. The extracted human factors are integrated into a state-of-the-art backbone model as an attention map. Experimental results using nine real-world and benchmark datasets demonstrate that HINTS consistently improves forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, multiple case studies and ablation studies validate the interpretability of HINTS, demonstrating strong semantic alignment between the extracted factors and real-world events, demonstrating the practical utility of HINTS.

时间序列自监督可解释性金融预测

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