用专家先验提升时间序列插补精度,让生成模型更准
Exploiting the Prior of Generative Time Series Imputation
- 用预训练模型生成缺失值作为先验,指导生成过程
- 在多个数据集上误差低于现有方法,均方误差与绝对误差最优
- 适合需要高精度时间序列修复的金融、气象等场景
时间序列插补广泛应用于电力、金融和天气建模。以往方法使用扩散概率模型或薛定谔桥模型,从高斯噪声或线性插值结果中条件生成缺失值,但其先验对真实目标信息不足,导致生成负担重、精度受限。本文提出Bridge-TS,构建数据到数据的生成流程,并设计两种新先验:一是专家先验,利用预训练Transformer模块进行确定性估计,将其结果作为真实目标的先验;二是组合先验,融合多个预训练模型的输出,在数据到数据生成中实现多源先验到目标的插补。在ETT、Exchange、Weather等多个基准数据集上的实验表明,Bridge-TS在均方误差和平均绝对误差上达到新纪录,证明改进先验对生成式时间序列插补的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series imputation, i.e., filling the missing values of a time recording, finds various applications in electricity, finance, and weather modelling. Previous methods have introduced generative models such as diffusion probabilistic models and Schrodinger bridge models to conditionally generate the missing values from Gaussian noise or directly from linear interpolation results. However, as their prior is not informative to the ground-truth target, their generation process inevitably suffer increased burden and limited imputation accuracy. In this work, we present Bridge-TS, building a data-to-data generation process for generative time series imputation and exploiting the design of prior with two novel designs. Firstly, we propose expert prior, leveraging a pretrained transformer-based module as an expert to fill the missing values with a deterministic estimation, and then taking the results as the prior of ground truth target. Secondly, we explore compositional priors, utilizing several pretrained models to provide different estimation results, and then combining them in the data-to-data generation process to achieve a compositional priors-to-target imputation process. Experiments conducted on several benchmark datasets such as ETT, Exchange, and Weather show that Bridge-TS reaches a new record of imputation accuracy in terms of mean square error and mean absolute error, demonstrating the superiority of improving prior for generative time series imputation.
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