arXiv:2512.23906eess.SPcs.AI2025-12

用多模态Transformer预测地表形变,跨站点泛化能力强。

A multimodal Transformer for InSAR-based ground deformation forecasting with cross-site generalization across Europe

  • 融合形变速率、季节分量与日期编码的多模态输入
  • 在爱尔兰东部测试集上达到0.90毫米RMSE和0.97 R²
  • 适合需要高精度区域形变预报的工程与灾害预警场景

近实时的大范围地表形变监测对城市规划、关键基础设施管理及自然灾害减灾日益重要。尽管干涉合成孔径雷达(InSAR)和欧洲地表运动服务(EGMS)提供了密集的历史形变观测,但由于长期趋势、季节周期与突发突变(如地震阶跃)的叠加以及强空间异质性,预测下一时刻的形变仍具挑战。本研究提出一种基于补丁的多模态Transformer模型,用于从EGMS时间序列(重采样至64×64网格,100公里×100公里瓦片)中进行单步、固定间隔的形变图预估。模型输入包括近期形变快照,以及(i)仅使用训练窗口计算的静态运动学指标(平均速度、加速度、季节振幅),避免信息泄露,和(ii)谐波形式的日期编码。在爱尔兰东部瓦片(E32N34)上,仅使用形变输入时STGCN表现最佳;但当所有模型接收相同多模态输入时,多模态Transformer显著优于CNN-LSTM、CNN-LSTM+Attn和多模态STGCN,测试集上达到RMSE = 0.90 mm,R² = 0.97,且最佳阈值准确率最优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Near-real-time regional-scale monitoring of ground deformation is increasingly required to support urban planning, critical infrastructure management, and natural hazard mitigation. While Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and continental-scale services such as the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) provide dense observations of past motion, predicting the next observation remains challenging due to the superposition of long-term trends, seasonal cycles, and occasional abrupt discontinuities (e.g., co-seismic steps), together with strong spatial heterogeneity. In this study we propose a multimodal patch-based Transformer for single-step, fixed-interval next-epoch nowcasting of displacement maps from EGMS time series (resampled to a 64x64 grid over 100 km x 100 km tiles). The model ingests recent displacement snapshots together with (i) static kinematic indicators (mean velocity, acceleration, seasonal amplitude) computed in a leakage-safe manner from the training window only, and (ii) harmonic day-of-year encodings. On the eastern Ireland tile (E32N34), the STGCN is strongest in the displacement-only setting, whereas the multimodal Transformer clearly outperforms CNN-LSTM, CNN-LSTM+Attn, and multimodal STGCN when all models receive the same multimodal inputs, achieving RMSE = 0.90 mm and $R^2$ = 0.97 on the test set with the best threshold accuracies.

形变预测多模态TransformerInSAR

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