融合动态物理演化特征,提升变道意图预测精度。
Evolutionary Physics-Informed Temporal Fusion for Lane-Change Intention Prediction
- 用交通风险、交互压力等时序特征替代静态物理变量。
- 在highD和exiD数据集上1秒预测宏F1超0.95。
- 适合复杂路况下自动驾驶系统开发参考。
早期变道意图预测对自动驾驶和ADAS至关重要,但因变道行为依赖动态交通风险、周围车辆交互及目标车道可行性,而不仅限于瞬时车辆状态,仍具挑战性。本文提出一种进化式物理信息时序融合框架,用于三类变道意图预测(左变道、右变道、不变道)。不同于仅使用静态物理信息,该方法从传统交通信号中提取时序描述符,包括风险演化、间隙持续性、反事实车道效用、交互压力梯度、操作可行性与意图一致性。这些描述符与从原始轨迹序列学习的时序嵌入通过序列编码器融合,用于最终分类。在highD和exiD数据集上,分别于1秒、2秒、3秒预测时延下取得宏F1分数0.9514、0.9256、0.8872和0.9386、0.9070、0.8531。尤其在exiD匝道邻近场景提升显著,表明时序物理演化在交互密集环境中尤为有效。结果表明,结合演化物理信息与学习到的时序表征,能提供更动态且可解释的早期变道意图预测方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Early lane-change intention prediction is essential for autonomous driving and ADAS, but it remains challenging because lane-changing behavior depends on evolving traffic risk, surrounding-vehicle interactions, and target-lane feasibility rather than only instantaneous vehicle states. This study proposes an evolutionary physics-informed temporal fusion framework for three-class lane-change intention prediction, including left lane change, right lane change, and no lane change. Instead of using static physics-informed variables alone, the proposed method derives temporal descriptors from conventional traffic signals, including risk evolution, gap persistence, counterfactual lane utility, interaction pressure gradient, maneuver feasibility, and intent consistency. These descriptors are fused with temporal embeddings learned from raw trajectory sequences through a sequence encoder, and the fused representation is used for final classification. Experiments are conducted on the highD and exiD datasets under 1\,s, 2\,s, and 3\,s prediction horizons. The proposed model achieves Macro F1-scores of 0.9514, 0.9256, and 0.8872 on highD, and 0.9386, 0.9070, and 0.8531 on exiD, respectively. The improvement is especially pronounced in exiD ramp-adjacent scenarios, indicating that temporal physical evolution is particularly useful in interaction-rich environments. These results demonstrate that combining evolutionary physics-informed descriptors with learned temporal representations provides a more dynamic and interpretable solution for early lane-change intention prediction.
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