用大模型选股票+传统优化,能提升投资组合表现。
Generative AI-enhanced Sector-based Investment Portfolio Construction
- 用大模型从标普500各行业选20只股票并加权。
- 稳定期大模型组合收益和夏普比率均优于行业指数。
- 波动期表现变差,适合结合传统方法使用。
本文研究了主流厂商(OpenAI、Google、Anthropic、DeepSeek、xAI)的大语言模型在量化行业投资组合构建中的应用。通过提示各模型在标普500各行业指数中选出并加权20只股票,评估其组合与对应行业指数在两个不同样本外阶段的表现:稳定市场期(2025年1-3月)和波动市场期(2025年4-6月)。结果显示,大模型组合表现具有显著的时间依赖性。在稳定市场中,多数大模型组合在累计收益和风险调整后收益(夏普比率)上优于行业指数;但在波动期,许多组合表现不佳,表明当前模型在训练数据未覆盖的高波动环境下适应能力有限。值得注意的是,将大模型选股与传统优化方法结合后,无论在绩效还是稳定性上均有提升。本研究是首个对多家供应商生成式AI算法进行跨模型、多维度评估的实证工作,揭示大模型可通过增强选股与可解释性有效补充量化金融,但其可靠性受市场环境影响。研究强调,融合大模型推理与经典优化的混合框架,有助于构建更稳健、自适应的投资策略。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper investigates how Large Language Models (LLMs) from leading providers (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, DeepSeek, and xAI) can be applied to quantitative sector-based portfolio construction. We use LLMs to identify investable universes of stocks within S&P 500 sector indices and evaluate how their selections perform when combined with classical portfolio optimization methods. Each model was prompted to select and weight 20 stocks per sector, and the resulting portfolios were compared with their respective sector indices across two distinct out-of-sample periods: a stable market phase (January-March 2025) and a volatile phase (April-June 2025). Our results reveal a strong temporal dependence in LLM portfolio performance. During stable market conditions, LLM-weighted portfolios frequently outperformed sector indices on both cumulative return and risk-adjusted (Sharpe ratio) measures. However, during the volatile period, many LLM portfolios underperformed, suggesting that current models may struggle to adapt to regime shifts or high-volatility environments underrepresented in their training data. Importantly, when LLM-based stock selection is combined with traditional optimization techniques, portfolio outcomes improve in both performance and consistency. This study contributes one of the first multi-model, cross-provider evaluations of generative AI algorithms in investment management. It highlights that while LLMs can effectively complement quantitative finance by enhancing stock selection and interpretability, their reliability remains market-dependent. The findings underscore the potential of hybrid AI-quantitative frameworks, integrating LLM reasoning with established optimization techniques, to produce more robust and adaptive investment strategies.
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