arXiv:2512.24767cs.LG2025-12

基于武汉真实用户数据,揭示自动驾驶出租车采纳的关键心理因素。

From Trial to Deployment: A SEM Analysis of Traveler Adoptions to Fully Operational Autonomous Taxis

  • 通过结构方程模型分析六类心理因子对使用行为的影响
  • 成本敏感性和使用意愿是采纳最强正向预测因子
  • 研究结果可指导政策制定与商业化推广策略

自动驾驶出租车服务代表了城市交通的变革性进步,具有安全性高、效率优和全天候运营的优势。尽管已有文献通过假设情景和陈述偏好实验研究用户接受度,但极少有研究基于实际运营的自动驾驶服务考察真实用户行为。本研究填补这一空白,利用中国武汉地区百度Apollo Robotaxi服务的真实运营数据,设计包含实际服务属性的调查问卷,收集336份有效用户反馈。采用结构方程模型(SEM)识别出六个潜在心理构念:信任与政策支持、成本敏感性、性能感知、行为意向、生活方式和教育水平。分析其对采纳行为(在十个情景中选择自动驾驶出租车的频率)的影响。结果显示,成本敏感性和行为意向是采纳的最强正向预测因子,其余构念作用更为复杂。模型在多个拟合指标上表现良好。研究为政策制定、定价设计及公众宣传提供实证支持,助力自动驾驶出租车在真实城市环境中的规模化部署。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Autonomous taxi services represent a transformative advancement in urban mobility, offering safety, efficiency, and round-the-clock operations. While existing literature has explored user acceptance of autonomous taxis through stated preference experiments and hypothetical scenarios, few studies have investigated actual user behavior based on operational AV services. This study addresses that gap by leveraging survey data from Wuhan, China, where Baidu's Apollo Robotaxi service operates at scale. We design a realistic survey incorporating actual service attributes and collect 336 valid responses from actual users. Using Structural Equation Modeling, we identify six latent psychological constructs, namely Trust \& Policy Support, Cost Sensitivity, Performance, Behavioral Intention, Lifestyle, and Education. Their influences on adoption behavior, measured by the selection frequency of autonomous taxis in ten scenarios, are examined and interpreted. Results show that Cost Sensitivity and Behavioral Intention are the strongest positive predictors of adoption, while other latent constructs play more nuanced roles. The model demonstrates strong goodness-of-fit across multiple indices. Our findings offer empirical evidence to support policymaking, fare design, and public outreach strategies for scaling autonomous taxis deployments in real-world urban settings.

自动驾驶行为研究出行服务实证分析

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