arXiv:2601.00521eess.SYcs.AI2026-01

考虑找车位时间,智能引导司机到最优停车场。

Probability-Aware Parking Selection

  • 用概率动态规划模型预测车位可用性,优化抵达时间
  • 实测可节省66%时间,比盲目导航快得多
  • 适合城市交通规划与智能导航系统研发者

当前导航系统将驾驶时间等同于到达时间,忽略了找车位和步行段的时间,导致严重低估实际耗时,影响用户体验、出行方式选择、交通拥堵和排放。为此,本文提出概率感知的停车选址问题,旨在引导司机至最优停车点而非直接目的地。提出一种可适应的动态规划框架,利用车位级别的概率可用性信息,最小化期望到达时间。闭式分析确定何时应选择特定停车场或探索其他选项,以及相应的期望成本。通过敏感性分析和三个案例研究,验证了模型对车位动态可用性的捕捉能力。考虑到永久传感器部署成本高,评估了使用随机观测估计可用性的误差率。基于西雅图真实数据的实验表明,随着观测频率提高,平均绝对误差从7%降至2%以下。在基于数据的模拟中,概率感知策略相比无概率基线最多可节省66%时间,但仍可能比驾驶时间估算多花123%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Current navigation systems conflate time-to-drive with the true time-to-arrive by ignoring parking search duration and the final walking leg. Such underestimation can significantly affect user experience, mode choice, congestion, and emissions. To address this issue, this paper introduces the probability-aware parking selection problem, which aims to direct drivers to the best parking location rather than straight to their destination. An adaptable dynamic programming framework is proposed that leverages probabilistic, lot-level availability to minimize the expected time-to-arrive. Closed-form analysis determines when it is optimal to target a specific parking lot or explore alternatives, as well as the expected time cost. Sensitivity analysis and three illustrative cases are examined, demonstrating the model's ability to account for the dynamic nature of parking availability. Given the high cost of permanent sensing infrastructure, we assess the error rates of using stochastic observations to estimate availability. Experiments with real-world data from the US city of Seattle indicate this approach's viability, with mean absolute error decreasing from 7% to below 2% as observation frequency increases. In data-based simulations, probability-aware strategies demonstrate time savings up to 66% relative to probability-unaware baselines, yet still take up to 123% longer than time-to-drive estimates.

智能导航路径规划概率建模

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