arXiv:2601.00641cs.CL2026-01

通过多次运行+投票机制,让大模型在固定输入下几乎不会说错话。

Probabilistic Guarantees for Reducing Contextual Hallucinations in LLMs

  • 用重复提问+独立上下文窗口,让错误答案概率指数下降。
  • 引入大模型当裁判,投票越多,选错的概率越低,可精确计算。
  • 无需改模型或提示词,就能大幅降低幻觉风险,适合高可靠场景。

大语言模型在固定输入任务中常出现与提示内容矛盾的幻觉,尤其在确定性自动化流程中问题严重。本文提出一种无需修改模型权重、解码策略或提示工程的通用框架,通过在独立上下文窗口中重复同一提示,使所有输出均错误的概率呈指数级下降。为选出正确答案,引入大模型作为裁判,并证明其失败概率由裁判的真实/假阳性率决定。当裁判不完美时,采用独立裁判投票的多数表决机制,使集成错误率随投票次数指数下降。实验在合成噪声裁判的控制提取任务上验证了该理论:管道失败率和幻觉选中率均随重复次数和投票数指数下降,与理论预测完全一致。该方法为固定输入的大模型工作流提供了轻量、模块化且理论严谨的幻觉控制方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) frequently produce contextual hallucinations, where generated content contradicts or ignores information explicitly stated in the prompt. Such errors are particularly problematic in deterministic automation workflows, where inputs are fixed and correctness is unambiguous. We introduce a simple and model-agnostic framework that provides explicit probabilistic guarantees for reducing hallucinations in this setting. We formalize the notion of a specific task, defined by a fixed input and a deterministic correctness criterion, and show that issuing the same prompt in independent context windows yields an exponential reduction in the probability that all model outputs are incorrect. To identify a correct answer among repeated runs, we incorporate an LLM-as-a-judge and prove that the probability that the judged pipeline fails decays at a rate determined by the judge's true- and false-positive probabilities. When the judge is imperfect, we strengthen it through majority vote over independent judge calls, obtaining ensemble-level error rates that decrease exponentially in the number of votes. This yields an explicit bound on the probability that the pipeline selects a hallucinated answer. Experiments on controlled extraction tasks with synthetic noisy judges match these predictions exactly: pipeline failure decreases exponentially with the number of repetitions, and hallucination-selection decreases exponentially with the number of judges in the ensemble. Together, these results provide a lightweight, modular, and theoretically grounded method for driving hallucination probabilities arbitrarily low in fixed-input LLM workflows-without modifying model weights, decoding strategies, or prompt engineering.

幻觉抑制概率保证模型推理可靠性

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