arXiv:2601.00871physics.soc-phcs.DL2026-01被引 2

深度与广度搜索影响创新见效时间,各有优劣。

Deep versus Broad Technology Search and the Timing of Innovation Impact

  • 用机器学习建模专利网络,分析490万件美国专利的引用路径。
  • 深度搜索短期影响力强但难扩散,广度搜索初期阻力大却长期更广。
  • 适合想平衡技术深耕与应用拓展的团队或研究者参考。

本研究从动态集体知识系统的视角重新审视创新战略中的深度与广度之争,通过前沿机器学习方法在双曲空间中预测专利引用网络,分析490万件美国专利,揭示搜索策略如何塑造技术创新影响力的积累时序模式。研究发现,基于深度搜索(依赖对复杂重组结构的专业理解)的发明能通过早期在专业社群中的采纳实现更高的短期影响力,但随着创新“锁定”而面临回报递减和扩散受限;而基于广度搜索(跨越不同领域)的发明虽初始遭遇阻力,却能触达认知多样性群体,实现更广泛的传播和更大的长期影响力。单一发明需兼具深度与广度以获得稳定影响。组织可在多项目间策略性地平衡二者:以深度构建可靠技术基础,以广度拓展应用场景。本研究推进了创新理论,揭示了深度与广度搜索策略如何显著影响技术影响力的时机与轨迹,并为个体发明者与组织提供兼顾利用与探索的实践路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study offers a new perspective on the depth-versus-breadth debate in innovation strategy, by modeling inventive search within dynamic collective knowledge systems, and underscoring the importance of timing for technological impact. Using frontier machine learning to project patent citation networks in hyperbolic space, we analyze 4.9 million U.S. patents to examine how search strategies give rise to distinct temporal patterns in impact accumulation. We find that inventions based on deep search, which relies on a specialized understanding of complex recombination structures, drive higher short-term impact through early adoption within specialized communities, but face diminishing returns as innovations become "locked-in" with limited diffusion potential. Conversely, when inventions are grounded in broad search that spans disparate domains, they encounter initial resistance but achieve wider diffusion and greater long-term impact by reaching cognitively diverse audiences. Individual inventions require both depth and breadth for stable impact. Organizations can strategically balance approaches across multiple inventions: using depth to build reliable technological infrastructure while pursuing breadth to expand applications. We advance innovation theory by demonstrating how deep and broad search strategies distinctly shape the timing and trajectory of technological impact, and how individual inventors and organizations can leverage these mechanisms to balance exploitation and exploration.

创新策略专利分析机器学习技术影响

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