用随机定价数据直接评估AI决策的消费者盈余,避免复杂建模和积分。
Beyond Demand Estimation: Consumer Surplus Evaluation via Cumulative Propensity Weights
- 利用算法定价中的随机性,通过累积倾向权重重构需求积分
- 提出双稳健估计器,只需一个模型正确即可保证结果准确
- 适用于监管机构评估公平性与企业优化利润-公平权衡
本文提出一种基于观测数据的实用框架,用于审计人工智能驱动决策(如精准定价和算法信贷)对消费者盈余的影响。传统方法需先估计需求函数再积分计算盈余,但参数化形式易误设,非参数或机器学习方法又需大量数据且收敛慢。本文利用现代算法定价中探索与利用权衡带来的随机性,提出无需显式估计需求函数或数值积分的新估计器:每个在随机价格下的购买结果均为需求的无偏估计。通过新颖的累积倾向权重(CPW)对购买结果重加权,可重建积分。在此基础上,提出双重稳健的增强型累积倾向权重(ACPW)估计器,仅需需求模型或历史定价策略分布之一正确即可。该方法支持灵活使用机器学习,即使其收敛较慢也能实现快速收敛。两类估计器均非标准离策略评估,因消费者盈余为未观测目标。为应对公平性问题,扩展框架至不平等感知的盈余度量,帮助监管者与企业量化利润与公平的权衡。通过全面数值实验验证了方法有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to implement in practice due to model misspecification in parametric demand forms and the large data requirements and slow convergence of flexible nonparametric or machine learning approaches. Instead, we exploit the randomness inherent in modern algorithmic pricing, arising from the need to balance exploration and exploitation, and introduce an estimator that avoids explicit estimation and numerical integration of the demand function. Each observed purchase outcome at a randomized price is an unbiased estimate of demand and by carefully reweighting purchase outcomes using novel cumulative propensity weights (CPW), we are able to reconstruct the integral. Building on this idea, we introduce a doubly robust variant named the augmented cumulative propensity weighting (ACPW) estimator that only requires one of either the demand model or the historical pricing policy distribution to be correctly specified. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the use of flexible machine learning methods for estimating consumer surplus, since it achieves fast convergence rates by incorporating an estimate of demand, even when the machine learning estimate has slower convergence rates. Neither of these estimators is a standard application of off-policy evaluation techniques as the target estimand, consumer surplus, is unobserved. To address fairness, we extend this framework to an inequality-aware surplus measure, allowing regulators and firms to quantify the profit-equity trade-off. Finally, we validate our methods through comprehensive numerical studies.
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