SGD在时间依赖数据下仍能实现最优估计与后悔,无需权衡。
SGD with Dependent Data: Optimal Estimation, Regret, and Inference
- 基于两类时序依赖构建新分析框架,适用于非平稳、非混合数据。
- 非渐近下同时达到最优估计误差与后悔,无限时间也保持精度。
- 提出新锥形近似方法,支持无界协变量,适用于在线稀疏回归。
本文研究了在时间相关数据下随机梯度下降(SGD)最终迭代的性能。考虑两种互补的依赖来源:(i) 协变量与噪声过程中的鞅型依赖,适用于非平稳和非混合的时间序列;(ii) 由序贯决策引入的依赖。该框架与经典局部平稳性和强混合性并行,但互不包含。惊人的是,SGD在广泛步长调度和探索率方案下可自动适应独立与依赖信息。非渐近地,我们证明了SGD同时达到统计最优估计误差和后悔,优于已有结果。特别地,尾界在可能无穷的时域 $T=+ty$ 下仍保持紧致。渐近上,SGD迭代收敛至高斯分布,余项仅为 $O_{\PP}(1/\sqrt{t})$,表明先前声称的估计-后悔权衡实际上可避免。我们进一步提出一种新的“锥形”决策区域近似,允许协变量具有无界支撑。针对在线稀疏回归,设计了一种新SGD算法,仅需 $d$ 单位存储,每轮计算量为 $O(d)$ 次浮点运算,实现了长期统计最优性。直观上,每个新观测提升估计精度,而聚合统计量指导支持恢复。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This work investigates the performance of the final iterate produced by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) under temporally dependent data. We consider two complementary sources of dependence: $(i)$ martingale-type dependence in both the covariate and noise processes, which accommodates non-stationary and non-mixing time series data, and $(ii)$ dependence induced by sequential decision making. Our formulation runs in parallel with classical notions of (local) stationarity and strong mixing, while neither framework fully subsumes the other. Remarkably, SGD is shown to automatically accommodate both independent and dependent information under a broad class of stepsize schedules and exploration rate schemes. Non-asymptotically, we show that SGD simultaneously achieves statistically optimal estimation error and regret, extending and improving existing results. In particular, our tail bounds remain sharp even for potentially infinite horizon $T=+\infty$. Asymptotically, the SGD iterates converge to a Gaussian distribution with only an $O_{\PP}(1/\sqrt{t})$ remainder, demonstrating that the supposed estimation-regret trade-off claimed in prior work can in fact be avoided. We further propose a new ``conic'' approximation of the decision region that allows the covariates to have unbounded support. For online sparse regression, we develop a new SGD-based algorithm that uses only $d$ units of storage and requires $O(d)$ flops per iteration, achieving the long term statistical optimality. Intuitively, each incoming observation contributes to estimation accuracy, while aggregated summary statistics guide support recovery.
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